Understanding Crime Trends: A Workshop
An ad hoc committee will conduct a workshop-based study on understanding crime trends. This study will explore key substantive and methodological issues underlying what influences year-to-year and long term fluctuations in crime trends.
The agenda for the workshop will be developed to:
(1) address basic conceptual issues associated with explaining changes in crime rates over time;
(2) consider exemplary empirical treatments of crime trends; and
(3) provide a foundation for a more comprehensive future study on understanding crime trends.
The workshop will feature invited presentations and discussions on the following topics:
1) U. S. national trends since 1980, disaggregated by race, age, and sex; trend comparisons across Uniform Crime Reports and National Crime Victim Survey data; and identification of potentially important explanatory factors'
2) A review of the specific substantive, methodological, and data issues pertaining to the study of neighborhood-level crime trends
3) Model identification issues in the analysis of crime trends
4) A critical overview of models for crime forecasting.
The committee will commission papers to analyze trends for four crime types and present exemplary empirical treatments for understanding and predicting crime trends.
Drawing on the workshop presentations and discussions and the commissioned papers, the committee will prepare a report on conceptual and empirical approaches to understanding crime trends. The report will outline a preliminary research agenda and plan.
National Institute of Justice
RICHARD ROSENFELD (Co-chair),Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Missouri, St. Louis
ARTHUR S. GOLDBERGER (Co-chair),Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin, Madison
ALFRED BLUMSTEIN,John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management, Carnegie Mellon University
PHILLIP J. COOK,Stanford Institute of Public Policy, Duke University
STEVEN N. DURLAUF,Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin, Madison
KAREN HEIMER,Department of Sociology and Public Policy Center, University of Iowa
JANET L. LAURITSEN,Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Missouri, St. Louis
MICHAEL G. MAXFIELD,School of Criminal Justice, Rutgers University
CAROL PETRIE, Study Director
LINDA DePUGH, Administrative Assistant