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— June 1, 2015 — 

 

 People News

 

It’s that time of year—announcing changes in CNSTAT membership:
We offer deep thanks to three outgoing members of CNSTAT, whose terms will end June 30, 2015, for their dedicated service to CNSTAT and the NAS/NRC over many years, which continues as they participate in study panels and workshops—there is not space to list their manifold contributions to their professions and to the federal statistical, research, and policy analysis communities:
· David Card, professor of economics, University of California, Berkeley
· Sallie Keller, director and professor of statistics, Social and Decision Analytics Lab, Virginia Bioinformatics Institute at Virginia Tech, Arlington, VA
· Lisa Lynch, provost and professor of social and economic policy, Brandeis University

We are delighted to welcome three new members, appointed to 3-year terms beginning July 1, 2015:

· Francine Blau is Frances Perkins professor of industrial and labor relations and professor of economics at Cornell University, and research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. She has written extensively on gender issues, wage inequality, immigration, and international comparisons of labor market outcomes. She has served as president of the Society of Labor Economists, the Midwest Economics Association, and the Labor and Employment Association, and as vice-president of the American Economic Association. She is also a fellow of the Society of Labor Economists, the American Academy of Political and Social Science, and the Labor and Employment Relations Association. She is former editor of the Journal of Labor Economics and serves or has served on the editorial boards of the American Economic Review, the Journal of Economic Perspectives, the Journal of Labor Economics, Labour Economics, and the Industrial and Labor Relations Review, among others. In 2001, she received the Carolyn Shaw Bell Award from the American Economic Association Committee on the Status of Women in the Economics Profession for furthering the status of women in the economics profession, and in 2010 she received the IZA Prize for outstanding academic achievement in the field of labor economics—she was the first woman to receive this prestigious award. Dr. Blau has a B.S. in industrial and labor relations from Cornell University, and M.A. and Ph.D. degrees in economics, both from Harvard University. She is currently chairing the NRC Panel on the Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration.

· Susan A. Murphy is H. E. Robbins professor of statistics, a professor in the Department of Psychiatry, and a research professor in the Institute for Social Research at the University of Michigan. She received her B.S. from Louisiana State University and her Ph.D. from the University of North Carolina. She was affiliated with Pennsylvania State University prior to her appointment to the faculty of the University of Michigan. She is also a principal investigator at the Methodology Center of Pennsylvania State University. She served on the NRC Panel on Handling Missing Data in Clinical Trials and the Committee to Improve Research Information and Data on Firearms. She was named a MacArthur fellow in 2013.

· Roberto Rigobon is the Society of Sloan Fellows professor of management and professor of applied economics at the MIT Sloan School of Management. He is also a visiting professor at the Instituto de Estudios Superiores de Administración (Institute of Advanced Studies in Administration, IESA) in Venezuela and a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research. Dr. Rigobon is a Venezuelan economist whose areas of research are international economics, monetary economics, and development economics. His research has addressed the causes of balance-of-payments crises, financial crises, and the propagation of them across countries—the phenomenon that has been identified in the literature as contagion. Currently, he is studying the properties of international pricing practices and how to produce alternative measures of inflation. He is one of the two founding members of the Billion Prices Project as well as a co-founder of PriceStats. He is a member of the Census Bureau’s Scientific Advisory Committee and president of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association. He has been an associate editor for the Review of Economics and Statistics, Economia, and Emerging Markets Review, and an editor for Economia Panel. Dr. Rigobon received a B.S. in electrical engineering from Universidad Simon Bolivar (Venezuela), an MBA from IESA, and a Ph.D. in economics from MIT.


We are also delighted to welcome back three members for their second 3-year terms:
· Constantine Gatsonis, professor and chair of biostatistics, Brown University
· James House, professor of survey research, public policy, and sociology, University of Michigan
· Edward Shortliffe, professor of biomedical informatics, Columbia and Arizona State Universities

Our continuing members include:
· Lawrence Brown (chair), professor of statistics, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
· John Abowd, professor of economics, School of Industrial and Labor Relations, Cornell University
· Mary Ellen Bock, head and professor of statistics, Purdue University
· Michael Chernew, professor of health care policy, Harvard Medical School
· Donald A. Dillman, professor of sociology, University of Washington
· Thomas L. Mesenbourg, former acting director and deputy director of the U.S. Census Bureau
· Sarah Nusser, vice president for research and professor of statistics, Iowa State University
· Colm A. O'Muircheartaigh, professor and former dean (2009-2014) of the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy Studies, and senior fellow with NORC at the University of Chicago

We are delighted to welcome a new staff member to CNSTAT:
· Cynthia Thomas joined CNSTAT on May 18, 2015, as senior program officer. She will direct a standing committee for NSF on the future of NSF’s social science surveys and a planning meeting on principles and practices for federal evaluation programs, funded by a consortium of agencies. Cynthia has more than 30 years of experience directing large-scale research and evaluation projects on such topics as aging and health care, disability, welfare and poverty, social services, housing, and employment. She has organized and chaired expert panels, developed questionnaires, managed research and data collection staff, and prepared reports and issue papers for federal agencies. She has taught at several universities and served as associate clinical professor of epidemiology and population health at Albert Einstein College of Medicine in New York. She worked at Westat from 1992 through fall 2014 as a senior study director. She previously worked at NORC at the University of Chicago and Mathematica Policy Research. She has a Ph.D. in political science from the University of Rochester.

We congratulate Alicia Carriquiry, professor of statistics at Iowa State University and former CNSTAT member, and her colleagues on receiving a grant from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) to establish a Center of Excellence in Forensic Sciences at Iowa State. The center’s goal will be to build a statistically sound and scientifically solid foundation under two branches of forensics—pattern evidence (including fingerprints and bullet marks) and digital evidence (including data from cell phones and computers). Alicia will direct the center in collaboration with David Baldwin, director of the Midwest Forensics Research Center at Iowa State and adjunct associate professor of chemistry; Stephen Fienberg, Maurice Falk university professor of statistics and social science at Carnegie Mellon, former CNSTAT chair, and NAS member; Karen Kafadar, Commonwealth professor and chair of statistics at the University of Virginia and former CNSTAT member; and Hal Stern, Ted and Janice Smith Family Foundation Dean of the Donald Bren School of Information and Computer Sciences and professor of statistics at UC Irvine and former CNSTAT member. A 2009 report by the National Research Council, Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States: A Path Forward, found serious problems with the country’s forensic science system and called for major reforms and new research. With the exception of DNA analysis, the report said forensic methods needed substantial research to validate techniques, assess limitations, and discover the sources of errors. To address those problems, the report recommended establishment of a national forensics institute to lead research, establish standards, and oversee education. In addition to its scientific work, the new center will also address forensics training and education for judges, lawyers, forensic examiners, and students.

We congratulate Jim House, professor of survey research, public policy, and sociology, University of Michigan, NAS member, and CNSTAT member, on publication of his book, Beyond Obamacare: Life, Death, and Social Policy (June 2015), by the Russell Sage Foundation. According to the RSF publicity blurb: Jim “advances a provocative analysis of our health care crisis. How is it possible that the United States spends more than any other nation on health care, yet has experienced a decline in population health relative to other wealthy—and even some developing—nations? In Beyond Obamacare, House shows that health care reforms, including the Affordable Care Act, cannot resolve this crisis because they do not focus on the underlying causes for poor health outcomes, which are largely social, economic, environmental, psychological, and behavioral. And it is these poor health outcomes that drive unparalleled spending on health care, now approaching 20% of GDP. House notes that socioeconomic determinants such as education and income have significant consequences for individuals' health outcomes. . . . Educational differences in death rates grew for both men and women during this time period, as mortality rates declined more rapidly for the highly-educated. And, House points outs, ‘Analyses in Canada found much the same, even after a quarter-century of national health insurance.’”

We congratulate Brent Moulton, associate director for national economic accounts, Bureau of Economic Analysis, for receiving the 2015 Julius Shiskin Memorial Award for Economic Statistics. The award recognizes unusually original and important contributions in the development of economic statistics or in the use of statistics in interpreting the economy. Brent is recognized for his leadership in implementing major innovations into the U.S. national accounts (e.g. treating research and development as an investment rather than an expense and expanding BEA’s efforts to incorporate intangible assets in the national accounts by recognizing artistic originals as capital assets); international standards for national accounts (e.g., helping to initiate the 2008 update of the System of National Accounts); and expanded integration of U.S. statistical programs. He is also recognized for his work at the Bureau of Labor Statistics in developing innovations that improved the reliability of the Consumer Price Index. He is the 43rd recipient of the award; he will be honored at events hosted by the three sponsors: the Washington Statistical Society, the National Association for Business Economics, and the Business and Economics Section of the American Statistical Association. Brent previously received the BLS Distinguished Service Award in 1997, the Department of Commerce Gold Medals in 2001 and 2007, and the Presidential Rank Award in 2011. He has a B.A. and M.S. in economics at Brigham Young University and a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Chicago.

We congratulate Barry Nussbaum on his recent election as president-elect of the American Statistical Association. Barry is chief statistician of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in the Office of Environmental Information. He has worked at the EPA since 1975, and his work has included statistical analyses leading to new emissions programs, support for enforcement cases, the phase-down of leaded gasoline, the regulation of fuel additives, and the assessment of motor vehicle emission control tampering. For these efforts, he has been awarded two EPA Silver Medals for Superior Service. He also chaired the Section on Statistics in the Environment of the American Statistical Association in 2000, and has taught graduate courses in statistics at George Washington University and Virginia Tech. He received a B.A. in mathematics from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute and an M.A. and Ph.D. in operations research from George Washington University.


 

 Report News

 

Affordability of National Flood Insurance Program Premiums—Report 1, the first report of the Water Science and Technology Board, Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications, and CNSTAT Committee on the Affordability of National Flood Insurance Program Premiums, was released in prepublication form on March 26, 2015. It is available in PDF; printed copies will be available shortly. The committee is chaired by Leonard Shabman, Resources for the Future, for the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
The Report in Brief—
The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) is housed within the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and offers insurance policies that are marketed and sold through private insurers, but with the risks borne by the U.S. government. NFIP's primary goals are to ensure affordable insurance premiums, secure widespread community participation in the program, and earn premium and fee income that covers claims paid and program expenses over time. In July 2012, the U.S. Congress passed the Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform and Modernization Act (Biggert-Waters 2012), designed to move toward an insurance program with NFIP risk-based premiums that better reflected expected losses from floods at insured properties. This eliminated policies priced at what the NFIP called "pre-FIRM subsidized" and "grandfathered." As Biggert-Waters 2012 went into effect, constituents from multiple communities expressed concerns about the elimination of lower rate classes, arguing that it created a financial burden on policy holders. In response to these concerns Congress passed The Homeowner Flood Insurance Affordability Act of 2014 (HFIAA 2014). The 2014 legislation changed the process by which pre-FIRM subsidized premiums for primary residences would be removed and reinstated grandfathering. As part of that legislation, FEMA must report back to Congress with a draft affordability framework. Affordability of National Flood Insurance Program Premiums: Report 1 is the first part of a two-part study to provide input as FEMA prepares their draft affordability framework. This report discusses the underlying definitions and methods for an affordability framework and the affordability concept and applications. It gives an overview of the demand for insurance and the history of the NFIP premium setting. The report then describes alternatives for determining when the premium increases resulting from Biggert-Waters 2012 would make flood insurance unaffordable.

Measuring Research and Development Expenditures in the U.S. Nonprofit Sector: Conceptual and Design Issues, Summary of a Workshop was released in prepublication form on January 5, 2015. It is available in PDF; printed copies will be available shortly. The workshop steering committee was chaired by Lester Salamon, Johns Hopkins University, for the National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics.
The Report in Brief—
NCSES of the National Science Foundation is responsible for national reporting of the research and development (R&D) activities that occur in all sectors of the U.S. economy. For most sectors, including the business and higher education sectors, NCSES collects data on these activities on a regular basis. However, data on R&D within the entire nonprofit sector have not been collected in 18 years, a time period that has seen dynamic and rapid growth of the sector. NCSES decided to design and implement a new survey of nonprofits and commissioned this workshop to provide a forum to discuss conceptual and design issues and methods. This report summarizes the discussions on the workshop about concepts and issues for the design of a survey of R&D expenditures made by nonprofit organizations, considering the goals, content, statistical methodology, data quality, and data products associated with this data collection. The report also considers the broader usefulness of the data for understanding the nature of the nonprofit sector and their R&D activities. The report will help readers understand the role of nonprofit sector, given its enormous size and scope as well as its contribution to identifying new forms of R&D beyond production processes and new technology.

 
Reminder: PDF versions of CNSTAT and NAS reports are available for free download at The National Academies Press website, http://www.nap.edu, NOTE: The download site asks for your e-mail and a password.  If you don’t have an NAP account and don’t want to have one, then provide your e-mail and click “I don’t have an account;” on the next page click “accept NAP policies” and “log in as guest”.  

Reminder:Slides from previous CNSTAT public seminars are available on the CNSTAT public seminars and symposia page; slides from several major workshops are available on the presentations page on the CNSTAT website. Presentations from the July 31-August 1, 2014 CNSTAT International Conference on Census Methods are available here.

 

 

 CNSTAT Meetings

 

CNSTAT holds three regular meetings each year, with its spring and fall meeting dates following a set formula; our May meetings are always the Thursday–Friday preceding Mother’s Day and our October meetings are always the second-to-last Thursday–Friday of the month. Here are the next three meetings:

CNSTAT’s 128th meeting will be held October 22–23, 2015, in the NAS main building at 2101 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC. On the 23rd, the meeting will feature a luncheon with statistical agency heads, followed by a public seminar, beginning with light refreshments at 2 pm and ending with a reception at 4:30 pm. The seminar will feature developments in measuring consumer prices and expenditures as a tribute to the late BLS commissioner, Janet Norwood.

CNSTAT’s 129th meeting will be held February 11–12, 2016, at the Keck Center of the National Academies at 500 Fifth Street NW, in Washington, DC. It will be a retreat meeting; there will be no agency head luncheon or public seminar.

CNSTAT’s 130th meeting will be held May 5-6, 2016, in the NAS main building at 2101 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC. On the 6th, the meeting will feature a luncheon with statistical agency heads, followed by a public seminar, beginning with light refreshments at 2 pm and ending with a reception at 4:30 pm.

 

 

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[Listed by sponsor agency, beginning with federal departments. Unless otherwise noted, meetings are in Washington, DC, and include open sessions. For further information, contact the person listed as the study director or project assistant (e-mail addresses follow the formula of first initial plus last name as oneword@nas.edu). Also see the CNSTAT web site under “Our Work.”]

Department of Agriculture

 

Panel on Methods for Integrating Multiple Data Sources to Improve Crop Estimates

Sponsor: National Agricultural Statistics Service

Duration: September 2014–September 2017

Study director: Nancy Kirkendall; project assistant: Mary Ann Kasper

Chair: Mary Ellen Bock (Purdue University)

Report planned: Final report

Upcoming meetings: Teleconference (closed), July 7, 2015

 

Workshop on Model-Based Methods for Producing Estimates of Livestock with Appropriate Measures of Uncertainty

Sponsor: National Agricultural Statistics Service

Duration: September 2014– September 2016

Study director: Nancy Kirkendall; project assistant: Mary Ann Kasper

Chair: TBD

Report planned: Workshop summary

Upcoming meetings: TBD

 

Workshop on Rationalizing Rural Area Classifications for ERS/USDA

Sponsor: Economic Research Service

Duration: September 2014–September 2015

Study director: Nancy Kirkendall; co-study director: Gooloo Wunderlich; project assistant: Mary Ann Kasper

Chair: David Brown (Cornell University)

Report planned: Workshop summary is being prepared 

Meeting: Workshop held April 16-17, 2015 at the NAS Keck Center in Washington, DC


Department of Commerce

 

Panel to Reengineer the Census Bureau’s Annual Economic Surveys

Sponsor: U.S. Census Bureau

Duration: May 2015–May 2018

Study director: Glenn White; senior program officer: Nancy Kirkendall; project assistant: Mary Ann Kasper

Chair: TBD

Report planned: Final report

Upcoming meetings: TBD

 

Panel to Review and Evaluate the 2014 Survey of Income and Program Participation Content and Design

Sponsor: U.S. Census Bureau

Duration: September 2013–November 2016

Study director: Carol House; project assistant, Agnes Gaskin; research assistant: Adrienne Bradford

Chair: John Czajka (Mathematica Policy Research)

Report planned: Final report

Upcoming meetings: Third meeting held November 20-21, 2014, in Washington, DC; fourth meeting TBD (after data analysis completed)

 

Standing Committee on Reengineering Census Operations

Sponsor: U.S. Census Bureau

Duration: September 2014–September 2019

Study director: Daniel Cork; senior program officer: Michael Cohen; program officer: Jordyn White; project assistant: Anthony Mann

Chair: Thomas Cook (Decision Analytics International)

Reports: Standing committees do not issue reports; they meet for discussion; they also stand up workshops or consensus panels; this committee will stand up workshops on central topics for 2020 census planning; it has just stood up a consensus panel on reengineering the Census Bureau’s annual economic surveys.  A website for the committee is maintained at this link.

Upcoming meetings: Third meeting scheduled for June 29-30, 2015, in Washington, DC


Department of Education
 

Committee on the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) Achievement Levels Evaluation (joint with the DBASSE Board on Testing and Assessment, which has the lead)

Sponsor: National Center for Education Statistics

Duration: September 2014–March 2016

Study director: Judith Koenig (BOTA); program officer: Jordyn White (CNSTAT); project assistant: Kelly Arrington (BOTA)

Chair: Christopher Edley, Jr. (University of California, Berkeley)

Report planned: Final report

Upcoming meetings: Third meeting (closed) scheduled for July 6, 2015, by teleconference


Department of Health and Human Services
 

Standing Committee on Integrating New Behavioral Health Measures into SAMHSA’s Data Collection Programs (joint with the DBASSE Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences and the IOM Board on Health Sciences Policy)

Sponsors: Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation and Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration

Duration: August 2014–July 2016

Study director: Krisztina Marton; senior program officer, Jeanne Rivard (BBCSS); senior program officer: Adrienne Stith Butler (IOM); project assistant, Michael Siri

Chair: James Jackson (University of Michigan)

Reports: Standing committees do not issue reports; they meet for discussion; they also stand up workshops or consensus panels; this committee will stand up workshops on the topics of serious emotional disturbance in children, trauma and recovery, and specific mental illness diagnoses with any functional impairment. A website is maintained for the committee at this link.

Upcoming meetings: Workshop/second meeting on Serious Emotional Disturbance in Children scheduled for June 11-12, 2015, in Washington, DC; workshop/third meeting on Specific Mental Illness Diagnoses with Functional Impairment scheduled for September 24-25, 2015


Department of Homeland Security
 

Committee on Affordability of National Flood Insurance Program Premiums (joint with the Water Science and Technology Board, which has the lead, and the Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications)

Sponsor: Federal Emergency Management Agency

Duration: September 2013–September 2015

Study director: Jeffrey Jacobs (WSTB); CNSTAT director: Constance Citro; BMSA director: Scott Weidman

Chair: Leonard Shabman (Resources for the Future)

Reports planned: Affordability of National Food Insurance Premiums—Report 1 released in prepublication format, March 26, 2015; available in PDF; printed copies will be available shortly; second report being drafted

Upcoming meetings: Fifth and final meeting held May 6-7, 2015, in Irvine, CA


Department of Justice
 

Panel on Modernizing the Nation’s Crime Statistics (joint with the Committee on Law and Justice)

Sponsor: Bureau of Justice Statistics and Federal Bureau of Investigation

Duration: September 2013–March 2016

Study director: Daniel Cork; senior program officer: Seth Hauser; project assistant: Michael Siri

Chair: Janet Lauritsen (University of Missouri–St. Louis)

Reports planned: Interim report is being drafted; final report

Upcoming meetings: Ninth meeting scheduled for August 4-5, 2015, in Washington, DC


Department of Transportation

Panel on Research Methodologies and Statistical Approaches to Understanding Driver Fatigue Factors in Motor Carrier Safety and Driver Health (joint with the Board on Human-Systems Integration and Transportation Research Board)
Sponsor: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration
Duration: September 2013–September 2015
Study director: Michael Cohen; senior program officer: Richard Pain; associate program officer: Esha Sinha; Board on Human-Systems Integration director: Poornima Madhavan; TRB Studies and Special Programs Division director: Stephen Godwin; project assistant: Agnes Gaskin
Co-chairs: Hal Stern (University of California, Irvine); Matthew Rizzo (University of Nebraska Medical Center)
Report planned: Final report is being drafted
Upcoming meetings: Fifth meeting (closed) scheduled for July 13-14, 2015, in Washington, DC

National Science Foundation

 

Forum on Open Science

Sponsor: National Science Foundation

Duration: October 2013–October 2016

Study director: Hermann Habermann; project assistant: Michael Siri

Chair: David Ward (University of Wisconsin–Madison)

Reports: Forums do not issue reports; they meet for discussion among a wide range of stakeholders; they can also stand up workshops or consensus panels

Upcoming meetings: Fourth and last meeting held March 27, 2015, in Washington, DC; follow-on activities to be scheduled

 

Standing Committee on the Future of Major NSF-Funded Social Science Surveys

Sponsor: National Science Foundation

Duration: March 2015 – March June 2016

Study director: TBD; project assistant: Eileen LeFurgy

Chair: TBD

Reports: Standing committees do not issue reports; they meet for discussion; they may also stand up workshops or consensus panels

Upcoming meetings: TBD

 

The Carnegie Corporation of New York

Standing Committee on Creating the American Opportunity Study, First Phase

Sponsor: The Carnegie Corporation of New York

Duration: April 2015–March 2017

Study director: Carol House; project assistant: Agnes Gaskin

Chair-designate: Michael Hout (NYU)

Reports: Standing committees do not issue reports; they meet for discussion; they also stand up workshops or consensus panels; this committee will stand up workshops on the design and research uses of the American Opportunity Study (AOS), which is being developed to measure intergenerational mobility by linking 1990 census records (after capturing the necessary information) with subsequent census records, American Community Survey records, and administrative records that become available. The result will be a facility for researchers to obtain extracts of linked files for analysis within the Census Bureau’s Research Data Center network. The First Phase AOS is intended to address the challenges of capturing linking information for the 1990 census short- and long-form records, to evaluate the likely quality of matches with other records, and to propose the next phase of work. A website will be maintained for the committee.

Upcoming meetings: TBD


The Laura and John Arnold Foundation
 

Panel on Improving Federal Statistics for Policy and Social Science Research Using Multiple Data Sources and State-of-the-Art Estimation Methods

Sponsor: The Laura and John Arnold Foundation

Duration: April 2015–September 2017

Study director: Brian Harris-Kojetin: project assistant: Agnes Gaskin

Chair-designate: Robert Groves (Georgetown U)

Report planned: Final report

Upcoming meetings: TBD


The John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation

Panel on the Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration
Sponsor: The John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation
Duration: May 2013–October 2015
Study director: Christopher Mackie; associate program officer: Esha Sinha; project assistant: Anthony Mann
Chair: Francine Blau (Cornell University)
Report planned: Final report
Upcoming meetings: Seventh meeting to be held in September
 

NEWS ARCHIVES

CNSTAT News May 2015

CNSTAT News March 2015
CNSTAT News February 2015

CNSTAT News January 2015

CNSTAT News 2014

CNSTAT News 2013

CNSTAT News 2012

CNSTAT News 2011

CNSTAT News 2010

CNSTAT News 2009

CNSTAT News 2008

CNSTAT News 2007

 

 

 



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