Saturday, November 1, 2014 
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Coordinating and Sustaining Federal Statistics

Decennial Census and American Community Survey

Economic Measurement

Federal Household and Business Surveys

Health and Social Welfare

Principles and Practices for a Federal Statistical Agency

Science Technology and Innovation (STI) Indicators

Statistical Methods and Estimates for Policy Use

Statistical Methods and Estimates for Policy Use

Over several decades CNSTAT has undertaken a range of studies to improve statistical methods and estimates for use in policy making and implementation. A landmark 1991 study evaluated microsimulation models that are used extensively by executive branch and congressional agencies for assessing the pros and cons of alternative tax and transfer programs; its recommendations led to better understanding, documentation, and hardware and software platforms for these important public policy tools. Subsequent studies examined models for retirement income and Medicare policies. A major study in the late 1990s evaluated smallarea estimation models that combine administrative records with survey data to produce more reliable estimates than are possible with survey data alone: the estimates produced by one such model, the Census Bureau’s Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE) program, are used to allocate federal funds to school districts to support disadvantaged students. In the late 2000s, CNSTAT completed a major study for the Food and Drug Administration on methods for reducing and compensating for missing data in clinical trials of alternative treatments for medical conditions. Other policy-relevant methodological studies have evaluated the accuracy of the polygraph for lie detection, alternative methods for estimating the size of markets for illegal drugs, and measures of disparity for women-owned small businesses in federal contracting.


Current Projects


Research Methodologies and Statistical Approaches to Understanding Driver Fatigue Factors in Motor Carrier Safety and Driver Health

Theory and Application of Reliability Growth Modeling to Defense Systems
Completed Projects and Workshops

Options for Estimating Illegal Entries at U.S.-Mexico Border





Relevant Reports

Estimating Illegal Entries at the U.S.-Mexico Border  (CNSTAT)

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is responsible for securing and managing the nation's borders. Over the past decade, DHS has dramatically stepped up its enforcement efforts at the... Read more

Key National Education Indicators: Workshop Summary  (BOTA,CNSTAT)

The education system in the United States is continually challenged to adapt and improve, in part because its mission has become far more ambitious than it once was. At the turn of the 20th century,... Read more

Industrial Methods for the Effective Development and Testing of Defense Systems  (CNSTAT,BAST)

During the past decade and a half, the National Research Council, through its Committee on National Statistics, has carried out a number of studies on the application of statistical methods to improve... Read more

Ensuring the Quality, Credibility, and Relevance of U.S. Justice Statistics  (CNSTAT,CLAJ)

The Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) of the U.S. Department of Justice is one of the smallest of the U.S. principal statistical agencies but shoulders one of the most expansive and detailed legal... Read more

Ballistic Imaging  (CLAJ,CNSTAT,NMAB)

Ballistic Imaging assesses the state of computer-based imaging technology in forensic firearms identification. The book evaluates the current law enforcement database of images of crime-related... Read more

State and Local Government Statistics at a Crossroads  (CNSTAT)

Since the early days of the nation, the federal government has collected information on the revenues, expenditures, and other features of state and local jurisdictions and their operations. Today,... Read more

Testing of Defense Systems in an Evolutionary Acquisition Environment  (CNSTAT)

The Department of Defense (DoD) recently adopted evolutionary acquisition, a dynamic strategy for the development and acquisition of its defense systems. Evolutionary defense systems are planned, in... Read more

Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling:Volume I, Review and Recommendations  (CBASSE)

This book reviews the uses and abuses of microsimulation models--large, complex models that produce estimates of the effects on program costs and who would gain and who would lose from proposed... Read more

Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling:Volume II, Technical Papers  (CBASSE)

This volume, second in the series, provides essential background material for policy analysts, researchers, statisticians, and others interested in the application of microsimulation techniques to... Read more

Immigration Statistics:A Story of Neglect  (CBASSE)

This book examines the needs for and availability of statistics concerning immigrants and immigration. It concentrates on the needs for statistics on immigrants, refugees, and illegal aliens for... Read more

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