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Statistical Approaches for the Evaluation of Complex Computer Models

December 3-4, 1999
Hotel Santa Fe, Santa Fe, New Mexico

This workshop was organized by the Committee on Applied and Theoretical Statistics of the National Research Council, Los Alamos National Laboratory, and the National Institute of Statistical Sciences with funding provided by the National Science Foundation and Los Alamos National Laboratory.



Friday, December 3

8:00 a.m. Breakfast at meeting

8:30 a.m. Welcome and Keynote---Dr. William Press, Los Alamos Deputy Director for Science, Technology, and Programs

Climate Session

9:15 a.m. Models: Robert Fovell, UCLA
Statistical Aspects: Richard Berk, UCLA

10:15 a.m. Break

10:30 a.m. Open discussion of the four questions as they relate to climate modeling

12:15 p.m. Synthesis of the discussion (by the session rapporteur)

12:30 p.m. Lunch

Wildfire Session

1:45 p.m. Models Rod Linn, LANL
Statistical Aspects: Frederic (Rick) Schoenberg, UCLA

2:45 p.m. Open discussion of the four questions as they relate to wildfire modeling

3:15 p.m. Break

3:30 p.m. Resume plenary discussion

5:00 p.m. Andrew White, LANL, Rapporteur

5:15 p.m. Adjourn

6:30 p.m. Small groups go to dinner


Saturday December, 4

8:00 a.m. Breakfast at meeting

Transportation modeling

8:30 a.m. Models: Nagui Rouphail, NCSU
Statistical Aspects: Jerome Sacks, NISS

9:30 a.m. Open discussion of the four questions as they relate to transportation modeling

10:00 a.m. Break

10:15  a.m. Resume plenary discussion

11:30 a.m. Synthesis of the discussion (by the session rapporteur)

11:45 a.m. Lunch

Immune System Modeling

1:00 p.m. James Hyman, LANL, Moderator
Models: Alan Perelson, LANL
Statistical Aspects: Peter Bickel, University of California at Berkeley

2:00 p.m. Open discussion of the four questions as they relate to immune system modeling

3:00 p.m. Break

3:15 p.m. Resume plenary discussion

4:00 p.m. Thomas Kepler, North Carolina State, Rapporteur/synthesizer

4:15 p.m. Identification and discussion of overall workshop results

5:15 p.m. Adjourn

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Marcey Abate, Sandia National Laboratories
Mark Anderson, ACTA, Inc.
Mary Athan, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Corwin L. Atwood, Idaho National Engineering Laboratory
Steven Bankes, The RAND Graduate School; Evolving Logic
Samantha Bates, University of Washington
Richard Berk, University of California, LA
Mark Berliner, Ohio State University
Chris Barrett, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Peter J. Bickel, University of California, Berkeley (currently on sabbatical at NCAR)
John Cafeo, General Motors
Katherine Campbell, Los Alamos National Laboratory
William S. Carlton, Los Alamos National Laboratory
James Cavendish, General Motors
Chao Chan, University of California, Berkeley
Ronald Christensen, University of New Mexico
Barry Cipra, Science and SIAM News
Dennis Cox, Rice University
Jeff Daniels, Ohio State University
Arthur P. Dempster, Harvard University
Scott Doebling, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Ronald Dolin, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Robert Easterling, Sandia National Laboratories
Thomas A. Ferryman, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Robert Fovell, University of California, LA
Michael Frenklach, University of California, Berkeley
Michael Fugate, Los Alamos National Laboratory
James Glimm, SUNY, Stony Brook
Todd Graves, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Heidi Graziano, University of California, LA
Mike Hamada, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Ken Hanson, Los Alamos National Laboratory
William Heavlin, Advanced Micro Devices, CA
Francois M. Hemez, Los Alamos National Laboratory
David Higdon, Duke University
Frederick Howes, Department of Energy
Aparna V. Huzurbazar, University of New Mexico
James Hyman, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Mark Johnson, University of Central Florida
Alan F. Karr, National Institute of Statistical Sciences
Sallie Keller-McNulty, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Elizabeth J. Kelly, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Joe Kindel, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Thomas Kepler, North Carolina State University
Jaimyoung Kwon, Univ. of California, Berkeley
Jaeyong Lee, National Institute of Statistical Sciences
Rod Linn, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Bob Lust, General Motors
Robert C. Malone, Los Alamos National Laboratory
James Maar, Magnify Research
Michael McKay, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Gregory McRae, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Leslie Moore, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Darrell Morgeson, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Max Morris, Iowa State University
Jack Morrison, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Christopher Nachtsheim, University of Minnesota
Doug Nychka, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Mihaela Oprea, Santa Fe Institute
Tony O’Hagan, University of Sheffield, UK
Art Owen, Stanford University
Byungkyu Park, National Institute of Statistical Sciences
Jason Pepin, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Alan Perelson, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Richard Picard, Los Alamos National Laboratory
David Poole, AT&T
William Press, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Brent Pulsipher, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
C. Shane Reese, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Winston Rhee, Los Alamos National Laboratory
John Rice, University of California, Berkeley
Ya’acov Ritov, Hebrew University, Jerusalem
James Robins, Harvard University
James Rosenberger, National Science Foundation
Nagui Rouphail, North Carolina State University
Brian Rutherford, Sandia National Laboratories
Jerome Sacks, National Institute of Statistical Sciences
Tom J. Santner, Ohio State University
Frederic Schoenberg, University of California, LA
John H. Schuenemeyer, US Geological Survey
David Scott, Rice University (currently on sabbatical at NSA)
Matt Schonlau, The RAND Corporation
Dave Sharp, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Hoon Sohn, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Paul Speckman, University of Missouri
Stefano Tarantola, European Community Joint Research Centre, Italy
Christine A. Treml, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Tim Trucano, Sandia National Laboratories
Edward Wegman, George Mason University
Scott Weidman, The National Academies
Robert Weiss, University of California, LA
Joanne R. Wendelberger, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Andrew White, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Alyson Wilson, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Larry Winter, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Weng Kee Wong, University of California, LA
Yingnian Wu, University of California, LA
Henry Wynn, University of Warwick
Donald Ylvisaker, University of California, LA

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