Evaluation of Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties Methodology for Assessing and Certifying the Reliability of the Nation’s Nuclear Stockpile (DEPS)

Released 11.11.08

Maintaining the capabilities of the nuclear weapons stockpile and performing the annual assessment for the stockpile’s certification involves a wide range of processes, technologies, and expertise.  An important and valuable element helping to link those components is the quantification of margins and uncertainties (QMU) framework.  In 2006, Congress asked the National Research Council to evaluate the QMU methodology as used by the national security laboratories.  The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) then affirmed its interest in this request.  Congress and NNSA were interested in how the national security labs were using QMU, how it was being used for the annual assessment, whether there were problematic differences among the three national security labs in the way they were applying QMU, and whether QMU could be used to help certify a proposed reliable replacement warhead.  This report presents an assessment of each of these four issues and includes findings and recommendations to help guide laboratory and NNSA implementation and development of the QMU framework and congressional oversight of those activities. 

America’s Energy Future: Summary of a Meeting (DEPS)

Released 11.10.08

In late 2007, the National Academies launched a major initiative—the America’s Energy Future (AEF) project—to examine key technological and policy issues about energy.  To begin the project, a summit on America’s Energy Future was held on March 13-14 that featured many of the key people working on energy issues.  Over the two-day period, these individuals made presentations summarizing and elaborating on their previous work.  Videos of these presentations are available on http://www.nationalacademies.org/energy the AEF project website. This report summarizes what was discussed at the workshop.  It is divided according to the major themes of the summit: the current context, a look at energy supplies, a review of the uses of energy, and an examination of how we can meet the energy challenges now facing the nation.

The Potential Impact of High-end Capability Computing on Four Illustrative Fields of Science and Engineering (DEPS)

Released 08.27.08

High-end capability computing (HECC) has been playing an increasingly important role in advancing knowledge in broad areas of science and engineering.  As a consequence, the federal Networking and Information Technology Research and Development (NITRD) program, which coordinates federal investments in information technology, has become quite interested in gaining a better understanding of where investments in HECC would be most productive.  In particular what are key scientific and engineering questions on which significant progress is impossible or unlikely without HECC?  To assist in exploring this issue, NITRD asked the NRC to study the potential impact of HECC on four illustrative fields: atmospheric physics, astrophysics, chemical separations, and evolutionary biology.  This report presents assessments of the potential impact for each field; an analysis of the numerical and algorithmic characteristics of the HECC-dependent major challenges for the four fields including cross-cutting challenges; and a set of conclusions to help guide future investments in HECC.

Evaluation of the National Aerospace Initiative

The National Aerospace Initiative (NAI) was conceived as a joint effort between the Department of Defense (DOD) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to sustain the aerospace leadership of the United States through the acceleration of selected aerospace technologies: hypersonic flight, access to space, and space technologies. The Air Force became concerned about the NAI’s possible consequences on Air Force programs and budget if NAI program decisions differed from Air Force priorities. To examine this issue, it asked the NRC for an independent review of the NAI. This report presents the results of that assessment. It focuses on three questions asked by the Air Force: is NAI technically feasible in the time frame laid out; is it financially feasible over that period; and is it operationally relevant.

Maintaining High Scientific Quality at Los Alamos and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories (DEPS)

In recent years, there has been concern about security and operations management at Los Alamos and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories (LANL and LLNL). As a result, Congress directed the Department of Energy (DOE) to hold open competitions for the management and operations (M&O) contracts for both LANL and LLNL. The quality of the scientific programs, however, did not appear to be a factor in that action, and the DOE’s National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) wanted to ensure that the contract competitions preserve the high-quality science and engineering currently being performed at the labs. It asked the NRC to recommend how best the NNSA can create meaningful qualification and selection discriminators to help ensure world-class scientific quality is maintained in programs and activities at LANL and LLNL. This report presents those recommendations along with other important factors that should be considered in developing the request for proposals for the upcoming contract competition.

Report Summary

University Research Centers of Excellence for Homeland Security (DEPS)

In establishing the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the Administration and Congress determined that science and technology should play a key role in the nation’s efforts to counter terrorism. Congress included an S&T directorate prominently in the DHS. Within that directorate, is the Office of University Programs, which is responsible for sponsoring a number of homeland security centers of excellence in the nation’s universities. These centers are to work on a spectrum of short- and long-range R&D and carry out crosscutting, multidisciplinary work on a variety of threats. To assist it in planning for these centers, TSA asked the NRC to hold a workshop to generate a broad range of ideas to draw on to help define the centers. This report presents the results of that workshop including the major ideas that emerged from the discussions.

Workshop on University Research Centers of Excellence for Homeland Security