Pre-Milestone A and Early-Phase systems Engineering: A Retrospective Review and Benefits for Future Air Force systems Acquisition (AFSB)

Released 12.18.07

The ability of U.S. military forces to field new weapons systems quickly and to contain their cost growth has declined significantly over the past few decades.  There are many causes including increased complexity, funding instability, bureaucracy, and more diverse user demands, but a view that is gaining more acceptance is that better systems engineering (SE) could help shorten development time.  To investigate this assertion in more detail, the US Air Force asked the NRC to examine the role that SE can play during the acquisition life cycle to address root causes of program failure especially during pre-milestone A and early program phases.  This report presents an assessment of the relationship between SE and program outcome; an examination of the SE workforce; and an analysis of SE functions and guidelines.  The latter includes a definition of the minimum set of SE processes that need to be accounted for during project development.

Assessment of the NASA Astrobiology Institute (SSB)

Released 12.10.07

Astrobiology is a scientific discipline devoted to the study of life in the universe—its origin, evolution, distribution, and future.  In 1997, NASA established an Astrobiology program (the NASA Astrobiology Institute—NAI) as a result of a series of new results from solar system exploration and astronomical research in the mid-1990s together with advances in the biological sciences.  To help evaluate the NAI, NASA asked the NRC to review progress made by the Institute in developing the field of astrobiology.  This report  presents an evaluation of NAI’s success in meeting its goals for fostering interdisciplinary research, training future astrobiology researchers, providing scientific and technical leadership, exploring new research approaches with information technology, and supporting outreach to K-12 education programs.

Proceedings of a Workshop on Statistics on Networks (BMSA)

Released 12.04.07

A large number of biological, physical, and social systems contain complex networks.  Knowledge about how these networks operate is critical for advancing a more general understanding of network behavior.  To this end, each of these disciplines has created different kinds of statistical theory for inference on network data.  To help stimulate further progress in the field of statistical inference on network data, the NRC sponsored a workshop that brought together researchers who are dealing with network data in different contexts.  This report—which is available on CD only—contains the text of the 18 workshop presentations.  The presentations focused on five major areas of research: network models, dynamic networks, data and measurement on networks, robustness and fragility of networks, and visualization and scalability of networks.

Grading NASA’s Solar System Exploration Program: A Midterm Review (SSB)

Released 11.28.07

The NASA Authorization Act of 2005 directed the agency to ask the NRC to assess the performance of each division in the NASA Science directorate at five-year intervals. In this connection, NASA requested the NRC to review the progress the Planetary Exploration Division has made in implementing recommendations from previous, relevant NRC studies.  This report provides an assessment of NASA’s progress in fulfilling those recommendations including an evaluation how well it is doing and of current trends.  The report covers key science questions, flight missions, Mars exploration, research and analysis, and enabling technologies.  Recommendations are provided for those areas in particular need of improvement.

Comments in the Matter of Amendment of Part 90 of the Commission’s Rules (WT Docket No. 07-100).-Letter Report (BPA-CORF)

Released 08.13.07

Allocation of frequency spectrum for commercial use by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) can have a significant effect on scientific research such as radio astronomy.  The NRC’s Committee on Radio Frequencies (CORF) was established to examine the needs for radio frequency requirements and interference protection for scientific and engineering research. This report presents CORF’s assessments of the potential effect of an FCC proposal to permit permanent fixed microwave operations at 4.9 GHz.  This frequency is important for radio astronomy, and CORF argues that if the proposal goes forward, it should carry a requirement for frequency coordination between the operators and nearby radio astronomy facilities.

 
Comments in the Matter of Amendment of Parts 2 and 35 of the Commission’s Rules to Allocate Spectrum and Adopt Service Rules and Procedures to Govern the Use of Vehicle-Mounted Earth Stations in Certain Frequency Bands Allocated to the Fixed Satellite Service (IB Docket No. 07-101)-Letter Report (BPA-CORF)

Released 08.16.07

This report presents CORF’s assessment of the potential effect of a provision in an FCC proposal regulating satellite vehicle-mounted earth stations uplinking at 14.0-14.5 GHZ that would require frequency coordination with nearby radio astronomy facilities.  CORF believes that the best approach is to ban the 14.47-14.50 GHz portion of this band to prevent interference.  Baring that, CORF believes technical measures should be adopted to permit operators to carry out frequency coordination or make it a prerequisite to licensing.

Fusion of Security System Data to Improve Airport Security (NMAB)

Released 10.30.07

The security of the U.S. commercial aviation system has been a growing concern since the 1970’s when the hijacking of aircraft became a serious problem.  Over that period, federal aviation officials have been searching for more effective ways for non-invasive screening of passengers, luggage, and cargo to detect concealed explosives and weapons.  To assist in this effort, the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) asked the NRC for a study of emerging screening technologies.  This report—the fourth of four—focuses on data fusion as a means to significantly improve the ability of the existing suite of airport detection systems and access control systems to detect and prevent attacks.  The report presents a discussion of the data fusion, an analysis of current data fusion efforts, and an assessment of data fusion opportunities for various airport security activities. 

New Directions for Understanding Systemic Risk: A Report on a Conference Cosponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the National Academy of Sciences  (BMSA)

Released 10.30.07

The stability of the financial system and the potential for systemic events to alter its function have long been critical issues for central bankers and researchers.  Recent events suggest that older models of systemic shocks might no longer capture all of the possible paths of such disturbances or account for the increasing complexity of the financial system.  To help assess these concerns, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the NRC cosponsored a conference that brought together engineers, scientists, economists, and financial market experts to promote better understanding of systemic risk in a variety of fields.  The report presents an examination of tools used in ecology and engineering to study systemic collapse in those areas; a review of current trends in economic research on systemic risk, the payments system, and the market of interbank funds; and for context, descriptions of how systemic risk in the financial system affects trading activities.

Review of DOE’s Nuclear Energy Research and Development Program (BEES)

Released 10.29.07

There has been a substantial resurgence of interest in nuclear power in the United States over the past few years.  One consequence has been a rapid growth in the research budget of DOE’s Office of Nuclear Energy (NE).   In light of this growth, the Office of Management and Budget included within the FY2006 budget request a study by the National Academy of Sciences to review the NE research programs and recommend priorities among those programs.  The programs to be evaluated were: Nuclear Power 2010 (NP 2010), Generation IV (GEN IV), the Nuclear Hydrogen Initiative (NHI), the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP)/Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative (AFCI), and the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) facilities.  This report presents a description and analysis of each program along with specific findings and recommendations.  It also provides an assessment of program priorities and oversight. 

Executive Summary
 

Core Competencies for Federal Facilities Asset Management Through 2020: Transformational Strategies (BICE)

Released 10.17.07

The U.S. government is faced with growing challenges to managing its facilities and infrastructure.  A number of factors such as shrinking budgets, an aging workforce, and increasing costs demand new approaches to federal facilities management.  The Federal Facilities Council of the NRC has sponsored a number of studies looking at ways to meet these challenges.  This fourth study focuses on the people and skills that will needed to manage federal facilities in the next decade and beyond.  The report presents a discussion of the current context of facilities management; an analysis of the forces affecting federal facilities asset management; an assessment of core competencies for federal facilities management; a comprehensive strategy for workforce development; and recommendations for implementing that strategy.

Opportunities for Coordination and Clarity to Advance the National Health Information Agenda: A Brief Assessment of the Office of the National Coordinator for Health Information Technology—A Letter Report (IOM, CSTB)

Released 10.15.07

In 2004, the Department of Health and Human Services created the Office of the National Coordinator for Health Information Technology (ONC) to help move toward the goal of a national health information infrastructure.  In 2007, ONC asked the Institute of Medicine to comment on the effectiveness of the ONC standards processes in advancing to that goal.  Specifically, ONC wanted an examination of the processes it uses, how effectively they are working to advance the national health IT agenda, and recommendations for improvement.  This letter report presents a background discussion, an assessment of the pace of ONC’s activities, an analysis of the need for and content of a strategic plan, and a review of the cohesiveness and coordination of ONC’s standards processes.  

Managing Materials for a 21st Century Military (NMAB)

Released 01.03.07

Since 1939, the U.S. government, using the National Defense Stockpile (NDS), has been stockpiling critical strategic materials for national defense.  The economic and national security environments, however, have changed significantly from the time the NDS was created.  Current threats are more varied, production and processing of key materials is more globally dispersed, the global competition for raw materials is increasing, the U.S. military is more dependent on civilian industry, and industry depends far more on just-in-time inventory control.  To help determine the significance of these changes for the strategic materials stockpile, the Department of Defense asked the NRC to assess the continuing need for and value of the NDS.  This report begins with the historical context of the NDS.  It then presents a discussion of raw-materials and minerals supply, an examination of changing defense planning and materials needs, an analysis of modern tools used to manage materials supply chains, and an assessment of current operational practices of the NDS.  

Executive Summary

Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report (SSB)

Released 10.02.07

In June 2006, changes were announced by NOAA that reduced the scope of the next generation of polar and geostationary environmental monitoring satellites, NPOESS and GOES-R.  To examine the impacts of these changes, particularly those associated with climate research, and ways to mitigate those impacts, NASA and NOAA asked the NRC to add this task to its ongoing "decadal survey," Earth Science and Applications from Space.  The sponsors and the NRC agreed to address this task separately and to base its analysis on a major workshop. Two reports would be issued: the first summarizing the presentations and discussions of the workshop and the second with recommendations for a strategy to recover the lost capabilities.  This report presents summaries of discussions at the workshop, which included sessions on the measurements and sensors originally planned for NPOESS and GOES-R; generation of climate data records; mitigation options, including the role of international partners; and cross-cutting issues.  The second report is due in early 2008.

Released 09.10.07

At the request of the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), for the past several years, the NRC has carried out a biennial assessment of all of NIST's measurement and standards laboratories (MSL).  The assessment focused on each laboratory's technical quality and merit; its effectiveness; and the adequacy of its resources.  The assessments also examined the relevance of the NIST programs and how well laboratory facilities, equipment, and personnel are able to fulfill each MSL mission.  For 2007, NIST asked the NRC to focus on four MSLs: the National Center for Neutron Research (NCNR), the Information Technology Laboratory, the Chemical Science and Technology Laboratory, and the Electronics and Electrical Engineering Laboratory. 

The report on the NCNR presents a general assessment of the Lab, followed by assessments of its facilities and personnel, its role as a user facility, and its science and technology.  The report notes that the NCNR  provides a high flux of neutrons to an evolving suite of high-quality instruments, has a substantial and satisfied external user community, and its in-house science and technology is robust.

The report on the ITL presents a general assessment of the laboratory including a look at its research strategies, opportunities, planning for growth, research culture, and computing infrastructure; and provides assessments of the laboratory’s six divisions.  The report notes that the work of the ITL generally ranks at or near the top of the work being done by peer institutions.

The report on the CSTL presents an assessment of the Lab’s five divisions, covering—where appropriate—how well each division addresses national priorities, its impact and level of innovation, its technical merit, and its infrastructure.  The report notes that the CSTL is meeting its obligations and its priorities are appropriate and aligned with national priorities.

The report on the EEEL presents an assessment of the Lab’s four divisions. The assessment is based on four criteria: alignment with national priorities, motivation of its programs, technical merit, and technical program quality. The report also provides a look at three additional concerns: staffing and funding, international issues, and the planning process.

Released 09.06.07

The growing scale and complexity of software-intensive systems are introducing fundamental new challenges of uncertainty and scale that are particularly demanding for defense systems.  To assist in meeting these challenges, the Department of Defense asked the NRC to assess the nature of U.S. national investment in software research.  As part of this study, a workshop was held to examine uncertainty at scale in current and future software-intensive systems. This report presents a summary of the workshop discussions that centered on process, architecture, and the grand scale; DoD software challenges for future systems; agility at scale; quality and assurance with scale and uncertainty; and enterprise scale and beyond.  The report also offers a summary of key themes emerging from the workshop: architectural challenges in large-scale systems; the need for software engineering capability; and open questions and research opportunities. 

Released 09.05.07

The Beyond Einstein (BE) program is a set of five space missions designed to address important questions about physics and astrophysics.  In 2003, NASA prepared a research roadmap proposing these five missions in order to study dark energy, black holes, gravitational radiation, inflation of the early universe, and Einstein's theory of gravitation.  In FY2007, congressional language prompted NASA and DOE to request the NRC to assess these missions and recommend which to develop and launch first using a funding wedge that will start in 2009.  This report provides, for each mission, an analysis of its scientific impact, an examination of technical risk and a cost assessment, and a review of related policy and programmatic issues.  The report concludes with recommendations to guide the programs development.

Executive Summary

Strategic Management of Information and Communications Technology: The United States Air Force Experience with Y2K (PGA, CSTB)

Released 08.27.07

The Y2K situation presented an opportunity to learn how various factors affect risk that can threatens critical information infrastructure.  Events since then have demonstrated how an incomplete plan for strategic management of information and communications technology (ICT) could have severe consequences for delivery of emergency services.  This report provides lessons from how the US Air Force prepared for and responded to the Y2K threat.  It presents them under three headings: lessons for managing ICT complexity, lessons for aligning organizational and ICT strategies, and lessons for minimizing ICT risk.  The report also offers recommendations for improving Air Force management of information and supporting infrastructure and their implications for other organizations.  This report represents only the views of the principal investigator and not necessarily those of the NRC.

Released 08.06.07

The use of the Internet by individuals to conduct business with a broad array of private and public organizations is now very common. One of the largest of these, the Social Security Administration (SSA), has been developing online services for more than a decade. As it continues to develop e-government services, the SSA asked the NRC to examine its proposed e-government strategy including comparisons with those of comparable public- and private-sector institutions. This report provides an overview of broad organizational, technological, and societal context in which these services are being developed; a review of lessons from electronic services in global financial institutions; an assessment of existing and expected technology; and an analysis of the organizational transformation needed for effective application of e-government services.

Released 07.26.07

Under the direction of the U.S. Army’s Chemical Materials Agency (CMA) and mandated by Congress, the nation is destroying its chemical weapons stockpile. Large quantities of secondary waste are being generated in the process, and managing these wastes safely and effectively is a critical part of CMA’s weapons disposal program. To assist, the CMA asked the NRC to examine the environmental and regulatory requirements that secondary waste treatment is subject to, and to assess best practices by industry in meeting such requirements for similar facilities. This report presents an overview of secondary wastes from chemical agent disposal facilities (CDF), a comparison of CDF and industry experience, site-specific analysis of major secondary waste issues, an examination of closure wastes, and findings and recommendations.

Executive Summary

Released 07.20.07

The U.S. military has committed to a strategy of network-centric warfare. As a result, the Army has become increasingly interested in the critical role of network science. To a significant extent, this interest was stimulated by an earlier NRC report, Network Science. To build on that report, the Army asked the NRC to conduct a study to define advanced operating models and architectures for future Army laboratories and centers focused on network science, technologies, and experimentation (NTSE). The challenges resulting from base realignment and closure (BRAC) relocations of Army research, development, and engineering resources—as they affected the NTSE program—were also to be a focus of the study. This report provides a discussion of what NTSE is needed by the Army; an examination of the NTSE currently carried out by the Army; an assessment of needed infrastructure resources for Army NTSE; and an analysis of goals, models, and alternatives for an NTSE center.

Released 07.05.07

The search for life in the solar system and beyond has to date been governed by a model based on what we know about life on Earth (terran life). Most of NASA’s mission planning is focused on locations where liquid water is possible and emphasizes searches for structures that resemble cells in terran organisms. It is possible, however, that life exists that is based on chemical reactions that do not involve carbon compounds, that occurs in solvents other than water, or that involves oxidation-reduction reactions without oxygen gas. To assist NASA incorporate this possibility in its efforts to search for life, the NRC was asked to carry out a study to evaluate whether nonstandard biochemistry might support life in solar system and conceivable extrasolar environments, and to define areas to guide research in this area. This report presents an exploration of a limited set of hypothetical chemistries of life, a review of current knowledge concerning key questions or hypotheses about non-terran life, and suggestions for future research.

Released 06.26.07

The nation’s critical infrastructure depends extensively on information technology (IT). The United States, however, faces real risks that adversaries will exploit vulnerabilities in the nation’s critical information systems. In addition, there is inadequate understanding of what makes IT systems vulnerable, how best to reduce these vulnerabilities, and how to transfer cybersecurity knowledge to practice. In response to these concerns and at the request of Congress, the NRC undertook a study to develop a strategy for cybersecurity research that could address this vulnerability issue. This report presents an assessment of the nature of the cybersecurity threat; explores why previous research efforts have been less effective than desired; gives an analysis of human resource needs to advance cybersecurity research; provides a collection of illustrative research areas; and offers a set of priorities for action.

Released 06.20.07

The nature of materials research demands mechanisms to support interdisciplinary research to achieve the full potential of materials science and engineering. To this end, the NSF established the Materials Research Science and Engineering (MRSEC) program in 1994 to foster group research on materials in the academic community. After more than ten years, NSF deemed it appropriate to examine the MRSEC program. It requested the NRC to assess the performance and impact of the centers and, in the context of current trends in materials research, recommend future directions and roles for the program. This report provides a review of the overall context of the MRSEC program; an assessment of the impact of its research efforts, facilities, and education and outreach activities; an assessment of the impact of collaboration with industry; and an assessment of the future of the centers.

Released 06.20.07

Within the nation’s infrastructure, there are equipment and facilities that are subject to degradation by corrosion that can seriously compromise infrastructure lifetime, reliability, and functionality. Direct costs of corrosion have been estimated to be about 3.2 % of the U.S.GDP. Better engineering education is essential to improving corrosion control and management, and an assessment of the corrosion curricula of undergraduate engineering schools is timely. To address this topic, the NRC convened the 2007 Materials Forum to examine the current status of corrosion engineering education. This report presents abstracts of the proceedings of that forum. The proceedings examine the motivation for improved corrosion education; assess current practice in the teaching of corrosion at colleges and universities; and analyze the issues that need to be addressed to develop a comprehensive corrosion curriculum in undergraduate engineering.

Released 06.20.07

To support its space astronomy missions over the years, NASA has established a number of astronomy science centers that serve as an interface between the spacecraft and the research community. These centers have been very successful in enabling the astronomy missions to achieve their scientific potential. For new missions, NASA must decide whether to use existing centers, establish new ones, or pursue other means to support the mission. To help with this decision process, NASA asked the NRC to examine current centers, identify lessons learned and best practices, and consider whether there are optimum sizes or approaches for such centers. This report presents descriptions of the functions and responsibilities of an astronomy science center and of models of centers for various sized missions; an analysis of the principles that should guide the establishment, operation, and evolution of such centers; and recommendations for future NASA centers.

Released 06.15.07

The Army Research Laboratory (ARL) is the Army’s corporate basic and applied research laboratory. For the last 12 years, at the request of the Army, the NRC has provided biennial assessments of the scientific and technical quality of the ARL. These assessments focus on the work of the ARL’s directorates, and on technical rather than programmatic considerations. This report presents a review of accomplishments and opportunities, an assessment of ongoing research, and an examination of crosscutting issues for the lab’s six directorates: computational and information science; human research and engineering; sensors and electron devices; survivability and lethality analysis; vehicle technology; and weapons and materials research.

Released 06.14.07

As part of the 2010 physics decadal survey project, DOE and NSF requested the NRC to assess opportunities, over roughly the next decade, in condensed matter and materials physics (CMMP). The study is to review recent accomplishments and new opportunities; identify potential future impact of CMMP; consider its contributions to national needs; assessing priorities for tools and facilities; analyze current research and funding; and make recommendations for realizing the full benefit of CMMP. This report presents a survey of the CMMP field during the last decade, including the state of federal and private support of CMMP within the United States, and looks ahead to the intellectual and technological challenges of the coming decade. This discussion is centered about six grand challenges concerning energy demand, the physics of life, information technology, nanotechnology, complex phenomena, and behavior far from equilibrium.

Released 02.05.07

Comments in the Matter of Recommendations Approved by the Advisory Committee for the 2007 World Radiocommunication Conference (IB Docket No. 04-286)-Letter Report (BPA-CORF)

Released 12.06.06

Allocation of frequency spectrum for commercial use by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) can have a significant effect on scientific research such as radio astronomy. This report is one in a series from the NRC’s Committee on Radio Frequencies (CORF) that examines the needs for radio frequency requirements and interference protection for scientific and engineering research, coordinates the views of the U.S. scientists, and acts as a channel for representing the interests of U.S. scientists in the work of the inter-union commission on frequency allocations for radio astronomy and space science (IUCAF) of the International Council of Scientific Unions. These reports present CORFs assessments of the potential effect on the Earth Exploration Satellite Service (EESS) of two sets of proposals from the FCC based on the 2007 World Radiocommunication Conference. The first proposal would set allowed commercial transmission power levels in several microwave frequency bands also used by EESS to levels recommended by NASA, and the second would have removed power level limits for one such band.

Released 06.05.07

The growth of the terrorism threat to the nation’s security has created significant strategic challenges for U.S. armed forces in fighting this global war on terrorism (GWOT). For the Navy, the challenges have centered on developing maritime capabilities to prosecute the GWOT as far forward as possible. To assist the Navy’s planning in this area, the former Chief of Naval Operations requested the NRC to conduct an assessment of the adequacy of and prospects for improving the role of Naval Forces in the GWOT. The study developed a defense-in-depth framework as the organizing principle for the report. The report contains information as described in 5 U.S.C. 552(b) and therefore could not be released to the public in its entirety. The public version consists of an executive summary that presents an assessment of the transformation of naval forces for addressing the GWOT; a brief description of the defense-in-depth framework; and a list of findings and major recommendations.

Distributed Remote Sensing for Naval Undersea Warfare (NSB)

Released 06.05.07

The widespread availability of quiet, diesel electric submarines and inexpensive mines is posing a growing threat to global access by the U.S. Navy. In response, the Navy has expanded its undersea warfare efforts and put particular emphasis on the potential for new distributed remote sensing (DRS) approaches. To assist with this effort, the former Chief of Naval Operations requested the NRC to conduct an assessment of DRS for naval undersea warfare. This report provides a clear, near-term path by which useful DRS systems can be applied rapidly to pressing naval USW problems, and by which ongoing science and technology efforts can be directed toward the most useful options. The report contains information as described in 5 U.S.C. 552(b) and therefore could not be released to the public in its entirety. The public version consists of the front matter and executive summary.

Assessment of Wingtip Modifications to Increase the Fuel Efficiency of Air Force Aircraft (AFSB)

Released 05.30.07

The high cost of aviation fuel has resulted in increased attention by Congress and the Air Force on improving military aircraft fuel efficiency. One action considered is modification of the aircraft’s wingtip by installing, for example, winglets to reduce drag. While common on commercial aircraft, such modifications have been less so on military aircraft. In an attempt to encourage greater Air Force use in this area, Congress, in H. Rept. 109-452, directed the Air Force to provide a report examining the feasibility of modifying its aircraft with winglets. To assist in this effort, the Air Force asked the NRC to evaluate its aircraft inventory and identify those aircraft that may be good candidates for winglet modifications. This report—which considers other wingtip modifications in addition to winglets—presents a review of wingtip modifications; an examination of previous analyses and experience with such modifications; and an assessment of wingtip modifications for various Air Force aircraft and potential investment strategies.

Conventional Prompt Global Strike Capability: Letter Report (NSB)

Released 05.15.07

In its FY2007 budget request, the Department of Defense sought funding to develop a capability to strike within a few hours any point in the world with conventional weapons. This prompt global strike capability would be implemented by replacing the nuclear warhead on selected Trident missiles with a conventional explosive warhead. Congressional concerns about the concept resulted in a request to the NRC in the 2007 Defense Appropriations Act to analyze a broad range of technical and policy aspects about this proposal including consideration of a range of other options. This letter report is the first response to that request, and it summarizes the requirements and supporting enablers for a prompt global strike capability and recommends near term options to provide such capability. A second report will be issued in early 2008 that will provide a more comprehensive assessment of the concept.

Released 06.05.07

Because of the Moon’s unique place in the evolution of rocky worlds, it is a prime focus of NASA’s space exploration vision. Currently NASA is defining and implementing a series of robotic orbital and landed missions to the Moon as the initial phase of this vision. To realize the benefits of this activity, NASA needs a comprehensive, well-validated, and prioritized set of scientific research objectives. To help establish those objectives, NASA asked the NRC to provide guidance on the scientific challenges and opportunities enabled by sustained robotic and human exploration of the Moon during the period 2008-2023 and beyond. This final report presents a review of the current understanding of the early earth and moon; the identification of key science concepts and goals for moon exploration; an assessment of implementation options; and a set of prioritized lunar science concepts, goals, and recommendations. An interim report was released in September 2006.

An Astrobiology Strategy for the Exploration of Mars (SSB)

Released 05.20.07

Three recent developments have greatly increased interest in the search for life on Mars. The first is new information about the Martian environment including evidence of a watery past and the possibility of atmospheric methane. The second is the possibility of microbial viability on Mars. Finally, the Vision for Space Exploration initiative included an explicit directive to search for the evidence of life on Mars. These scientific and political developments led NASA to request the NRC’s assistance in formulating an up-to-date integrated astrobiology strategy for Mars exploration. Among other topics, this report presents a review of current knowledge about possible life on Mars; an astrobiological assessment of current Mars missions; a review of Mars-mission planetary protection; and findings and recommendations. The report notes that the greatest increase in understanding of Mars will come from the collection and return to Earth of a well-chosen suite of Martian surface materials.

Plasma Science: Advancing Knowledge in the National Interest (BPA)

Released 05.29.07

As part of its current physics decadal survey, Physics 2010, the NRC was asked by the DOE, NSF, and NASA to carry out an assessment of and outlook for the broad field of plasma science and engineering over the next several years. The study was to focus on progress in plasma research, identify the most compelling new scientific opportunities, evaluate prospects for broader application of plasmas, and offer guidance to realize these opportunities. The study paid particular attention to these last two points. This “demand-side” perspective provided a clear look at what plasma research can do to help achieve national goals of fusion energy, economic competitiveness, and nuclear weapons stockpile stewardship. The report provides an examination of the broad themes that frame plasma research: low-temperature plasma science and engineering; plasma physics at high energy density; plasma science of magnetic fusion; space and astrophysical science; and basic plasma science. Within those themes, the report offers a bold vision for future developments in plasma science.

Released 04.30.07

In January 2004, the President announced the Vision for Space Exploration policy, which, among other things, would establish a goal for human exploration of the Moon and Mars. This policy raises many challenges for NASA including whether the agency has the workforce to carry out the policy, or adequate mechanisms for acquiring one. To help explore this question, NASA requested that the NRC assess the current and future supply of highly skilled, U.S. aerospace professionals and identify solutions to meet any identified needs. This report presents an assessment of workforce supply and demand; an analysis of skills that will be needed by NASA and industry; an examination of workforce gaps and obstacles to fill those gaps including a particular need for systems engineers; an assessment of the role of academia and nontraditional approaches; and recommendations for action by all parties.

Released 05.01.07

The NRC has long used decadal surveys to review the status of and outlook for selected research fields, and to provide recommendations for scientific and programmatic priorities for federal research funding. While widely successful, various fiscal, technical, and policy factors have made implementation of this advice by relevant federal agencies difficult at times. To determine whether the approach to future surveys could be modified or improved to help account more effectively for those factors, the NRC undertook a workshop involving the research community and the relevant agencies to examine this question. This report presents a summary of the workshop. It provides a review of recent decadal surveys; a discussion of how to assess more effectively program cost and technical risk; an analysis of lessons learned from past surveys; and the identification of approaches that could enhance the realism, endurance, and utility of future surveys.

Released 05.04.07

The rapid expansion of information technology in recent years has dramatically increased attention on privacy. While there has been much written about privacy recently, most articles have presented the issue from a single point of view that did not consider the important interactions of technology, law, economics, business, social sciences, and ethics. In order to provide a broad-based look at privacy in the information age, the NRC—supported by the W.K. Kellogg, Alfred P. Sloan, and AT&T Foundations, and the Carnegie Corporation—carried out a study focusing on the fundamental concepts of privacy; the laws surrounding privacy; the tradeoffs among important areas of society; and the impact of technology on privacy conceptions. The report presents a review of thinking about privacy; an analysis of the intellectual, technological, legal, and political aspects of privacy; detailed examinations of privacy in the context of various data-intensive organizations, health care, libraries, law enforcement, and national security; and findings and recommendations about key, information technology-related privacy issues.

Released 05.09.07

Certification of a critical system means assurance that it is safe, secure, and will perform as intended. Usually, a software system is certified as dependable by assessing the process used to develop it. While direct observation of the system would provide a better means of assessing dependability, such observations are very difficult because of the complexity of software systems and discontinuous way they are used. To help understand the issues about determining software system dependability, the NRC, at the request of the NSF, the National Security Agency, the Office of Naval Research, and the FAA, carried out a study to asses the current state of certification in dependable systems. This study approached this task by addressing the question of how software might be made more dependable in a cost-effective manner, rather than the narrower question of software certification per se. The report presents a current view of software systems and dependability; an analysis of several key issues including transparency, evidence and openness, security concerns, education, and research; and findings and recommendations about software dependability and certification.

Released 05.15.07

In its FY2007 budget request, the Department of Defense sought funding to develop a capability to strike within a few hours any point in the world with conventional weapons. This prompt global strike capability would be implemented by replacing the nuclear warhead on selected Trident missiles with a conventional explosive warhead. Congressional concerns about the concept resulted in a request to the NRC in the 2007 Defense Appropriations Act to analyze a broad range of technical and policy aspects about this proposal including consideration of a range of other options. This letter report is the first response to that request, and it summarizes the requirements and supporting enablers for a prompt global strike capability and recommends near term options to provide such capability. A second report will be issued in early 2008 that will provide a more comprehensive assessment of the concept.

Assessment of the Continuing Operability of Chemical Agent Disposal Facilities and Equipment (BAST)

Released 03.16.07

The U.S. Army’s Chemical Materials Agency (CMA) currently oversees contracts for the operation of chemical agent stockpile incineration facilities at four disposal sites. Because the period of time required to dispose of these chemical agents has grown beyond that originally planned, the Army is becoming concerned about the possibility of growing operational problems as the processing equipment ages. To help address these concerns, the CMA requested the NRC to assess whether current policies and practices will be able to adequately anticipate and address facility obsolescence issues. This report presents a review of potential infrastructure and equipment weaknesses given that the facilities are being operated well beyond their original design lifetime; an assessment of the Army’s current and evolving obsolescence management programs; and offers recommendations about how the programs may be improved and strengthened to permit safe and expeditious completion of agent stockpile destruction and facility closure.

Assessment of the Results of External Independent Reviews for U.S. Department of Energy Projects (BICE)

Released 03.14.07

External independent reviews (EIR) and independent project reviews are essential parts of the U.S. Department of Energy’s project management. These reviews were established as part of the critical decision process for project management set forth in DOE Order 413.3 issued in 2000. In addition, Congress continues to support the use of EIRs to validate project performance baselines. For EIRs to be most effective in a time of growing budget pressure, DOE must ensure that they are effectively planned, efficiently executed, and provide added value to the projects. To assist in meeting these goals, DOE asked the NRC for advice on how EIRs can be tailored to ensure that essential information is provided at the optimum point in the critical decision process; that resources are focused on the riskiest projects; and that EIRs are cost effective. This report presents a review of characteristics of effective EIRs, an assessment of criteria for structuring review programs, and recommendations for enhancing the EIR process.

Exploring Organic Environments in the Solar System (SSB)

Released 02.27.07

The sources, distributions, and transformation of organic compounds in the solar system are active study areas as a means to provide information about the evolution of the solar system and the possibilities of life elsewhere in the universe. There are many organic synthesis processes, however, and ambiguity surrounds the relative effectiveness of these processes in explaining the distribution of organic compounds in the solar system. As a consequence, NASA directed the NRC to determine what processes account for the reduced carbon compounds found throughout the solar system and to examine how planetary exploration can advance understanding of this central issue. This report presents a discussion of the chemistry of carbon; an analysis of the formation, modification, and preservation of organic compounds in the solar system; and an assessment of research opportunities and strategies for enhancing our understanding of organic material in the solar system.

Interim Report on Methodological Improvements to the Department of Homeland Security’s Biological Agent Risk Analysis (BMSA)

Released 02.02.07

In 2004, the President issued a homeland security directive focusing on defense against biological weapons. This directive, along with the National Strategy for Homeland Security published in 2002, mandated assessments of the biological weapons threat to the nation and assigned responsibility for those assessments to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). To assist in this project, DHS asked the NRC to carry out a study of the methodology used by the agency to prepare its first bioterrorism risk assessment. This interim report provides a preliminary examination of that methodology along with recommendations for near-term guidance and direction for the further development of its risk analysis models. A final report will address longer-term issues in the development of risk assessment capabilities for DHS.

A Path to the Next Generation of U.S. Banknotes—Keeping it Real (BMED)

Released 02.26.07

The rapid pace at which digital printing is advancing is posing a very serious challenge to the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Bureau of Printing (BEP) to stay ahead of the evolving counterfeiting threats to U.S. currency. To help meet that challenge, the BEP asked the NRC to undertake an assessment of technologies and methods to produce designs to enhance the security of U.S. Federal Reserve notes (FRNs). This report presents the results of a systematic investigation of the trends in digital imaging and printing and how they enable emerging counterfeiting threats; the identification and analysis of new features of FRNs that could provide effective countermeasures to these threats; and an overview of a requirements-driven development process that could be adapted to develop an advanced-generation currency.

Analysis of Air Force Engine Efficiency Improvement Options for Large, Non-fighter Aircraft (AFSB)

Released 02.09.07

Because of the important national defense contribution of large, non-fighter aircraft, rapidly increasing fuel costs and increasing dependence on imported oil have triggered significant interest in increased aircraft engine efficiency by the U.S. Air Force. To help address this need, the Air Force asked the National Research Council (NRC) to examine and assess technical options for improving engine efficiency of all large non-fighter aircraft under Air Force command. This report presents a review of current Air Force fuel consumption patterns; an analysis of previous programs designed to replace aircraft engines; an examination of proposed engine modifications; an assessment of the potential impact of alternative fuels and engine science and technology programs, and an analysis of costs and funding requirements.

NASA Astrophysics Performance Assessment (SSB)

Released 02.07.07

While a number of remarkable discoveries in astronomy and astrophysics have taken place over the past 20 years, many important questions remain. Continued progress in these fields will require NASA’s leadership. To help determine if NASA can meet this challenge, Congress, in the 2005 NASA Authorization Act, directed the agency to have “[t]he performance of each division in the Science directorate…reviewed and assessed by the National Academy of Sciences at 5-year intervals.” In early 2006, NASA asked the NRC to conduct such an assessment for the agency’s Astrophysics Division. This report presents an assessment of how well NASA’s current program addresses the strategies, goals, and priorities outlined in previous Academy reports. The report provides an analysis of progress toward realizing these strategies, goals, and priorities; and a discussion of actions that could be taken to optimize the scientific value of the program in the context of current and forecasted resources.

Analysis of Air Force Engine Efficiency Improvement Options for Large, Non-fighter Aircraft (AFSB)

Released 02.09.07

Because of the important national defense contribution of large, non-fighter aircraft, rapidly increasing fuel costs and increasing dependence on imported oil have triggered significant interest in increased aircraft engine efficiency by the U.S. Air Force. To help address this need, the Air Force asked the National Research Council (NRC) to examine and assess technical options for improving engine efficiency of all large non-fighter aircraft under Air Force command. This report presents a review of current Air Force fuel consumption patterns; an analysis of previous programs designed to replace aircraft engines; an examination of proposed engine modifications; an assessment of the potential impact of alternative fuels and engine science and technology programs, and an analysis of costs and funding requirements.

Review and Assess Industrial Hygiene Standards and Practices at Tooele Chemical Agent Disposal Facility (TOCDF) (BAST)

Released 01/08/2007

As part of its continuing efforts to destroy the nation’s stockpile of chemical weapons, the U.S. Army Materiel Command conducted a Surety Management Review (SMR) that evaluated the Industrial Hygiene (IH) program at the Tooele Chemical Agent Disposal Facility (TOCDF). The IH program at TOCDF was given a rating of “Mission Capable with Limitations.” In order to obtain an independent assessment, the Chemical Materials Agency requested the National Research Council (NRC) review and assess the IH Standards and Practices at TOCDF as they relate to the SMR. This letter report presents an analysis of the SRM findings; an overview of the TOCDF IH Program; a comparison of the performance at TOCDF and specification standards; and recommendations for improving both the IH program and its review.

Earth Science and Applications from Space: A Community Assessment and Strategy for the Future (SSB)

Released 01/15/2007

Natural and human-induced changes in Earth’s interior, land surface, biosphere, atmosphere, and oceans affect all aspects of life. Understanding these changes requires a range of observations acquired from land-, sea-, air-, and space-based platforms. To assist NASA, NOAA, and USGS in developing these tools, the NRC was asked to carry out a “decadal strategy” survey of Earth science and applications from space that would develop the key scientific questions on which to focus Earth and environmental observations in the period 2005-2015 and beyond, and present a prioritized list of space programs, missions, and supporting activities to address these questions. This report presents a vision for the Earth science program; an analysis of the existing Earth Observing System and recommendations to help restore its capabilities; an assessment of and recommendations for new observations and missions for the next decade; an examination of and recommendations for effective application of those observations; and an analysis of how best to sustain that observation and applications system.

Executive Summary

A Review of Proposals to the 2007 Wright Megacenters of Innovation (WMI) Program of the State of Ohio (BLS, ASEB)

Released 01/15/2007

The State of Ohio’s Department of Development launched the 2007 Wright Megacenters of Innovation (WMI) program to help capitalize on new scientific and technological discoveries to enhance job growth and create new industries. To assist the State in this effort, the NRC was asked to conduct an independent review of proposals submitted to that program. Seven proposals were submitted—four in the biosciences and three in the physical sciences. This letter report presents the findings of that evaluation and includes a detailed discussion of each of the seven proposals. The report was prepared jointly by the Board on Life Sciences of the Division on Earth and Life Studies and the Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board of DEPS.

Assessment of Millimeter-Wave and Terahertz Technology for Detection and Identification of Concealed Explosives and Weapons (NMAB)

Released 01/29/2007

The security of the U.S. commercial aviation system has been a growing concern since the 1970’s when the hijacking of aircraft became a serious problem. Over that period, federal aviation officials have been searching for more effective ways for non-invasive screening of passengers, luggage, and cargo to detect concealed explosives and weapons. To assist in this effort, the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) asked the NRC for a study of emerging screening technologies. This report—the third of four—focuses on currently maturing millimeter-wavelength/terahertz imaging and spectroscopy technologies that offer promise in meeting aviation security requirements. The report provides a description of the basic operation of these imaging systems, an assessment of their component technologies, an analysis of various system concepts, and an implementation strategy for deployment of millimeter-wavelength/terahertz technology screening systems.

Improving Disaster Management: the Role of IT in Mitigation, Preparedness, Response, and Recovery (CSTB)

Released 01/29/2007

Information technology (IT) has the potential to play a critical role in managing natural and human made disasters. Damage to communications infrastructure, along with other communications problems exacerbated the difficulties in carrying out response and recovery efforts following Hurricane Katrina. To assist government planning in this area, the Congress, in the E-government Act of 2002, directed the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to request the NRC to conduct a study on the application of IT to disaster management. This report characterizes disaster management providing a framework for considering the range and nature of information and communication needs; presents a vision of the potential for IT to improve disaster management; provides an analysis of structural, organizational, and other non-technical barriers to the acquisition, adoption, and effective use of IT in disaster; and offers an outline of a research program aimed at strengthening IT-enabled capabilities for disaster management.

Executive Summary