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Standing Committee for Technology Insight-Gauge, Evaluate & ReviewThe National Academies’ Standing Committee for Technology Insight-Gauge Evaluate and Review (TIGER) was established in 2005 at the request of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) to conduct discussions of trends in science and technology of interest to the DIA and the Intelligence Community in general, with an emphasis on technological breakthroughs that could affect U.S. warfighting capabilities. The committee convenes four times annually to identify new challenges in the field of science and technology forecasting, research, and development; develop pertinent investigation strategies; and formulate statements of task for prospective studies. After approval by the Governing Board Executive Committee, the studies are carried out by separately appointed ad hoc committees in accordance to National Research Council policy. Statement of TaskThe National Academies will establish a standing committee to plan and develop projects to be conducted by the National Academies. The standing committee will be sponsored by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) and more generally to the Intelligence Community (IC). The committee will convene four times annually and hold discussions on S&T topics of interest to the IC and formulate statements of task for prospective studies, each of which would be subject to GBEC approval and be conducted by a separately appointed ad hoc committee in accordance with NRC policy and procedures and carried out in the appropriate NRC or IOM unit. The standing committee itself will not produce or be used in the development of any reports. Specifically, the standing committee will: - Conduct general discussion of trends in science and technology issues of interest to the IC with particular emphasis on challenges to U.S. warfighters involving technology surprise.
- Identify opportunities for new activities, and on pertinent strategies, and plans to undertake them.
- Prepare study project statements of task for institutional approval.
In fulfilling its role, the standing committee will require access to classified national security information at the SECRET level. It may also require access to other information exempt from public disclosure under the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA). Current Projects
ReportsThe TIGER standing committee was formed after the Committee on Defense Intelligence Agency Technology Forecasts and Reviews (DIA Committee) published the report Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances. One of the recommendations of the committee was for DIA to form a standing committee for a long term relationship with the National Academies. TIGER was formed in May of 2005.
| Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies
Released 09.29.09 Technological innovations are key causal agents of surprise and disruption. In the recent past, the United States military has encountered unexpected challenges in the battlefield due in part to the adversary’s incorporation of technologies not traditionally associated with weaponry. Recognizing the need to broaden the scope of current technology forecasting efforts, the Office of the Director, Defense Research and Engineering (DDR&E) and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) tasked the Committee for Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies with providing guidance and insight on how to build a persistent forecasting system to predict, analyze, and reduce the impact of the most dramatically disruptive technologies. The first of two reports, this volume analyzes existing forecasting methods and processes. It then outlines the necessary characteristics of a comprehensive forecasting system that integrates data from diverse sources to identify potentially game-changing technological innovations and facilitates informed decision making by policymakers. |  | Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow's Warfighter: A Symposium Report Released 09.08.09 On April 29, 2009 the National Research Council held a 1-day symposium titled, "Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow's Warfighter." This volume, a report of the symposium, highlights key challenges confronting the scientific and technical intelligence (S&TI) community and explores potential solutions that might enable the S&TI community to overcome those challenges. The symposium captured comments and observations from representatives from combatant commands and supporting governmental organizations, together with those of symposium participants, in order to elucidate concepts and trends, knowledge of which could be used to improve the Department of Defense's technology warning capability. Topics addressed included issues stemming from globalization of science and technology, challenges to U.S. warfighters that could result from technology surprise, examples of past technological surprise, and the strengths and weaknesses of current S&TI analysis. |  | Emerging Cognitive Neuroscience and Related Technologies Released 09.09.08 This report from the National Research Council, identifies and explores several specific research areas that have implications for U.S. national security, and should therefore be monitored consistently by the intelligence community. These areas include: - neurophysiological advances in detecting and measuring indicators of psychological states and intentions of individuals
- the development of drugs or technologies that can alter human physical or cognitive abilities
- advances in real-time brain imaging
- breakthroughs in high-performance computing and neuronal modeling that could allow researchers to develop systems which mimic functions of the human brain, particularly the ability to organize disparate forms of data.
As these fields continue to grow, it will be imperative that the intelligence community be able to identify scientific advances relevant to national security when they occur. To do so will require adequate funding, intelligence analysts with advanced training in science and technology, and increased collaboration with the scientific community, particularly academia. A key tool for the intelligence community, this book will also be a useful resource for the health industry, the military, and others with a vested interest in technologies such as brain imaging and cognitive or physical enhancers. |  | Nanophotonics: Accessibility and Applicability Released 02.01.08 The Committee on Technology Insight-Gauge, Evaluate & Review set up by the NRC at the request of the Defense Intelligence Agency, has selected a number of emerging technologies to investigate for their potential threats to and opportunities for national security. This first study focused on emerging applications of nanophotonics. Nanophotonics is about the interaction of matter and light at the scale of the wavelength of the light. Manipulation of matter at that scale allows tailoring the optical properties to permit a wide-range of commercial and defense applications. This report presents a review of the nanoscale phenomena underpinning nanophotonics, an assessment of enabling technologies for developing new applications, an examination of potential military applications, and an assessment of foreign investment capabilities. |  | Critical Technology Accessibility (2006) In 2003, the Defense Intelligence Agency asked the NRC to form a standing committee to help develop study topics about technology warning. One issue that was identified was the growing dependence on foreign suppliers of critical technology as a result of the increase in globalization of economic activity. Two important questions emerged for study: what is the risk of denial of critical products from foreign sources and what must the United States do to assure access to future critical products and technologies? This report presents an assessment addressing those two questions. It also provides an analysis of a strategic approach to manage the consequences of this trend towards increased globalization. Finally, the report offers a set of recommendations to implement this strategy and to increase assurance of access to critical technologies. |  | Avoiding Surprise In An Era Of Global Technology Advances (2005) The global spread of science and technology expertise and the growing commercial access to advanced technologies with possible military application are creating potentially serious threats to the technological superiority underpinning U.S. military strength. Key to dealing with this situation is the ability of the U.S. intelligence community to be able to provide adequate and effective warning of evolving, critical technologies. To assist in performing this task, the Technology Warning Division of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to undertake a study examining technology warning issues. This report provides the first part of that study. It presents an assessment of critical, evolving technologies; postulates ways potential adversaries could disrupt these technologies; and provides indicators for the intelligence community to determine if such methods are under development. The intention of this report is to establish the foundation for a long-term relationship with the technology warning community to support the examination of technology warning issues. Report Summary |
Member RosterRuth David (NAE), Chair
ANSER, Inc | Diane Griffin (NAS, IOM)
Johns Hopkins University | Brian Ballard
Ares Systems Group
| J.C. Herz
Batchtags, LLC | Steven Brueck
University of New Mexico | Allison Hickey
Accenture National Security Services | Ann Campbell
Sandia National Laboratories | J. Jerome Holton
The Tauri Group
| Alan Epstein (NAE)
Pratt & Whitney | Ken Kress
KBK Consulting | John Gannon
BAE Systems | Frederick Lopez
AMC Inc.
| Sharon Glotzer
University of Michigan | Gilman Louie
Alsop Louie Partners | Christopher Green
Wayne State University | Stuart Parkin (NAS/NAE)
IBM Almaden Research Center | | Julie J.C.H. Ryan
The George Washington University
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Mike Clarke, Director NAS, Member of the National Academy of Sciences
NAE, Member of the National Academy of Engineering
IOM, Institute of Medicine
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