Evaluation of Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties Methodology for Assessing and Certifying the Reliability of the Nation’s Nuclear Stockpile (DEPS)

Released 11.11.08

Maintaining the capabilities of the nuclear weapons stockpile and performing the annual assessment for the stockpile’s certification involves a wide range of processes, technologies, and expertise.  An important and valuable element helping to link those components is the quantification of margins and uncertainties (QMU) framework.  In 2006, Congress asked the National Research Council to evaluate the QMU methodology as used by the national security laboratories.  The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) then affirmed its interest in this request.  Congress and NNSA were interested in how the national security labs were using QMU, how it was being used for the annual assessment, whether there were problematic differences among the three national security labs in the way they were applying QMU, and whether QMU could be used to help certify a proposed reliable replacement warhead.  This report presents an assessment of each of these four issues and includes findings and recommendations to help guide laboratory and NNSA implementation and development of the QMU framework and congressional oversight of those activities.

Released 04.25.2008

Integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) is an emerging discipline that can accelerate materials development and unify design and manufacturing. Developing ICME is a grand challenge that could provide significant economic benefit. To help develop a strategy for development of this new technology area, DOE and DoD asked the NRC to explore its benefits and promises, including the benefits of a comprehensive ICME capability; to establish a strategy for development and maintenance of an ICME infrastructure, and to make recommendations about how best to meet these opportunities. This report provides a vision for ICME, a review of case studies and lessons learned, an analysis of technological barriers, and an evaluation of ways to overcome cultural and organizational challenges to develop the discipline.