Evaluation of U.S. Air Force Preacquisition Technology Development (AFSB)

Released 12.29.10

From the days of biplanes and open cockpits, the air forces of the United States have relied on the mastery of technology. From design to operation, a project can stretch to 20 years and more, with continuous increases in cost. Much of the delay and cost growth afflicting modern United States Air Force (USAF) programs is rooted in the incorporation of advanced technology into major systems acquisition.

Leaders in the Air Force responsible for science and technology and acquisition are trying to determine the optimal way to utilize existing policies, processes, and resources to properly document and execute pre-program of record technology development efforts, including opportunities to facilitate the rapid acquisition of revolutionary capabilities and the more deliberate acquisition of evolutionary capabilities.

Evaluation of U.S. Air Force Preacquisition Technology Development responds to this need with an examination of the current state of Air Force technology development and the environment in which technology is acquired. The book considers best practices from both government and industry to distill appropriate recommendations that can be implemented within the USAF.
 

Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow's Warfighter--Symposium 2010 (TIGER)

Released 12.07.10

The Symposium on Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow's Warfighter is a forum for consumers and producers of scientific and technical intelligence to exchange perspectives on the potential sources of emerging or disruptive technologies and behaviors, with the goal of improving the Department of Defense's technological warning capability. This volume summarizes the key themes identified in the second and most recent symposium, a two-day event held in Suffolk, Virginia, on April 28 and 29, 2010. The symposium combined presentations highlighting cutting-edge technology topics with facilitated discourse among all participants. Three categories of surprise were identified: breakthroughs in product and process technology, new uses of existing technology, and the unexpectedly rapid progression of a technology to operational use. The incorporation of an adversary's own culture, history, beliefs, and value systems into analyses also emerged in discussions as an important factor in reducing surprise.

Review of Closure Plans for the Baseline Incineration Chemical Agent Disposal Facilities (BAST)

Released 12.07.10

This book responds to a request by the director of the U.S. Army Chemical Materials Agency (CMA) for the National Research Council to examine and evaluate the ongoing planning for closure of the four currently operational baseline incineration chemical agent disposal facilities and the closure of a related testing facility. The book evaluates the closure planning process as well as some aspects of closure operations that are taking place while the facilities are still disposing of agent. These facilities are located in Anniston, Alabama; Pine Bluff, Arkansas; Tooele, Utah; and Umatilla, Oregon. They are designated by the acronyms ANCDF, PBCDF, TOCDF, and UMCDF, respectively. Although the facilities all use the same technology and are in many ways identical, each has a particular set of challenges.
 

Critical Code: Software Producibility for Defense (CSTB)

Released 10.22.10

Critical Code contemplates Department of Defense (DoD) needs and priorities for software research and suggests a research agenda and related actions. Building on two prior books--Summary of a Workshop on Software Intensive Systems and Uncertainty at Scale and Preliminary Observations on DoD Software Research Needs and Priorities--the present volume assesses the nature of the national investment in software research and, in particular, considers ways to revitalize the knowledge base needed to design, produce, and employ software-intensive systems for tomorrow's defense needs.
 

Examination of the U.S. Air Force's Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) Workforce Needs in the Future and Its Strategy to Meet Those Needs (ASEB)

Released 08.25.10

The Air Force requires technical skills and expertise across the entire range of activities and processes associated with the development, fielding, and employment of air, space, and cyber operational capabilities. The growing complexity of both traditional and emerging missions is placing new demands on education, training, career development, system acquisition, platform sustainment, and development of operational systems. While in the past the Air Force's technologically intensive mission has been highly attractive to individuals educated in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) disciplines, force reductions, ongoing military operations, and budget pressures are creating new challenges for attracting and managing personnel with the needed technical skills. Assessments of recent development and acquisition process failures have identified a loss of technical competence within the Air Force (that is, in house or organic competence, as opposed to contractor support) as an underlying problem. These challenges come at a time of increased competition for technical graduates who are U.S. citizens, an aging industry and government workforce, and consolidations of the industrial base that supports military systems.

In response to a request from the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Science, Technology, and Engineering, the National Research Council conducted five fact-finding meetings at which senior Air Force commanders in the science and engineering, acquisition, test, operations, and logistics domains provided assessments of the adequacy of the current workforce in terms of quality and quantity.

Report Brief (PDF)

Review of the Design of the Dynasafe Static Detonation Chamber (SDC) System for the Anniston Chemical Agent Disposal Facility: Letter Report  (BAST)

Released 08.25.10

The Army is in the process of destroying projectiles and mortars that contain the chemical agent mustard at the Anniston Chemical Agent Disposal Facility (ANCDF) located on the Anniston Army Depot (ANAD) in Anniston, Alabama. Were the faulty devices to eventually be processed through the ANCDF, it would require that they be disassembled manually by workers wearing personnel protective equipment known as demilitarization protective ensemble suits. This operation nonetheless would expose the operators to a high safety risk.

Rather than exposing the workers to this additional risk, the Army will use an explosive detonation technology (EDT) to destroy the munitions without disassembling them. The particular EDT system that the Army plans to use is a static detonation chamber (SDC) system manufactured by the Swedish company, Dynasafe AB.

In response to a request from the Army, the present report reviews the design of the Dynasafe Static Detonation Chamber (SDC) system for the Anniston Chemical Agent Disposal Facility.

 

Seeing Photons: Progress and Limits of Visible and Infared Sensor Arrays (TIGER)

Released 08.17.10

The Department of Defense has recently highlighted intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities as a top priority for U.S. warfighters. Contributions provided by ISR assets in the operational theaters in Iraq and Afghanistan have been widely documented in press reporting. While the United States continues to increase investments in ISR capabilities, other nations not friendly to the United States will continue to seek countermeasures to U.S. capabilities.

The Technology Warning Division of the Defense Intelligence Agency's (DIA) Defense Warning Office (DWO) has the critical responsibility, in collaborations with other components of the intelligence community (IC), for providing U.S. policymakers insight into technological developments that may impact future U.S. warfighting capabilities.

To this end, the IC requested that the National Research Council (NRC) investigate and report on key visible and infrared detector technologies, with potential military utility, that are likely to be developed in the next 10-15 years. This study is the eighth in a series sponsored by the DWO and executed under the auspices of the NRC TIGER (Technology Insight-Gauge, Evaluate, and Review) Standing Committee.
 

S&T Strategies of Six Countries: Implications for the United States (TIGER)

Released 08.12.10

An increase in global access to goods and knowledge is transforming world-class science and technology (S&T) by bringing it within the capability of an unprecedented number of global parties who must compete for resources, markets, and talent. In particular, globalization has facilitated the success of formal S&T plans in many developing countries, where traditional limitations can now be overcome through the accumulation and global trade of a wide variety of goods, skills, and knowledge. As a result, centers for technological research and development (R&D) are now globally dispersed, setting the stage for greater uncertainty in the political, economic, and security arenas.

These changes will have a potentially enormous impact for U.S. national security policy, which for the past half century has been premised on U.S. economic and technological dominance. As the U.S. monopoly on talent and innovation wanes, arms export regulations and restrictions on visas for foreign S&T workers are becoming less useful as security strategies. The acute level of S&T competition among leading countries in the world today suggests that countries that fail to exploit new technologies or that lose the capability for proprietary use of their own new technologies will find their existing industries uncompetitive or obsolete. The increased access to information has transformed the 1950s' paradigm of "control and isolation" of information for innovation control into the current one of "engagement and partnerships" between innovators for innovation creation. Current and future strategies for S&T development need to be considered in light of these new realities.

This book analyzes the S&T strategies of Japan, Brazil, Russia, India, China, and Singapore (JBRICS), six countries that have either undergone or are undergoing remarkable growth in their S&T capabilities for the purpose of identifying unique national features and how they are utilized in the evolving global S&T environment.

Report Brief (PDF)

Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies--Report 2 (TIGER)

Released 06.10.10

 The term "disruptive technology" describes a technology that results in a sudden change affecting already established technologies or markets. Disruptive technologies cause one or more discontinuities in the normal evolutionary life cycle of technology. This may lead to an unexpected destabilization of an older technology order and an opportunity for new competitors to displace incumbents. Frequently cited examples include digital photography and desktop publishing.

The first report of the series, Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies, discussed how technology forecasts were historically made, assessed various existing forecasting systems, and identified desirable attributes of a next-generation persistent long-term forecasting system for disruptive technologies. This second book attempts to sketch out high-level forecasting system designs. In addition, the book provides further evaluation of the system attributes defined in the first report, and evidence of the feasibility of creating a system with those attributes. Together, the reports are intended to help the Department of Defense and the intelligence community identify and develop a forecasting system that will assist in detecting and tracking global technology trends, producing persistent long-term forecasts of disruptive technologies, and characterizing their potential impact on future U.S. warfighting and homeland defense capabilities.

Testing of Body Armor Materials for Use by the U.S. Army-Phase II: Letter Report (BAST)

Released 05.03.10

This report assesses the methodologies used for body armor testing. This Phase II report considers in greater detail [than in Phase I] the validity of using the column drop performance test described by the Army for assessing the part-to-part consistency of a clay body within the level of precision that is identified by the Army test procedures. More detailed evaluations of the array of issues surrounding body armor testing, both present and future, will be presented in the final Phase III report.
 

Released 04.26.10

The leaders of the U.S. Navy, Coast Guard, and Marine Corps have recognized the potential impact of climate change on naval forces' missions and have positioned their organizations to make adaptive changes. This report is the first component of a study to assess the implications of climate change for the U.S. Naval Services. Specifically, this report highlights issues that could have potential near-term impacts, impose a need for near-term awareness, or require near-term planning to ensure that longer-term naval capabilities are protected. The final report of this study will address all of the elements in the study's terms of reference and explore many potential implications of climate change not covered in this letter report.

Report Brief (PDF)

Released 1.8.10

Released 1.8.10

Owing to the expansion of network-centric operating concepts across the Department of Defense (DOD) and the growing threat to information and cybersecurity from lone actors, groups of like-minded actors, nation-states, and malicious insiders, information assurance is an area of significant and growing importance and concern. Because of the forward positioning of both the Navy's afloat and the Marine Corps expeditionary forces, IA issues for naval forces are exacerbated, and are tightly linked to operational success. Broad-based IA success is viewed by the NRC's Committee on Information Assurance for Network-Centric Naval Forces as providing a central underpinning to the DOD's network-centric operational concept and the Department of the Navy's (DON's) FORCEnet operational vision. Accordingly, this report provides a view and analysis of information assurance in the context of naval 'mission assurance'.

 

Review and Assessment of Closure Plans for the Tooele Chemical Agent Disposal Facility and the Chemical Agent Munition Disposal System (Letter Report)

The Chemical Materials Agency (CMA), requested the National Academies' Board on Army Science and Technology to examine the current state of closure activities for the Tooele Chemical Agent Disposal Facility (TOCDF) and the Chemical Agent Munitions Disposal System (CAMDS). In this brief interim report, the Committee on Review and Assessment of Closure Plans for the Tooele Chemical Agent Disposal Facility and the Chemical Agent Munitions Disposal System addresses some of the issues pertaining to closure at the TOCDF and CAMDS facilities. It also provides insights into what the committee believes are important parameters to ensure the success of the CMA's closure program for these and CMA facilities at other locations. This interim report is to be followed by another report, which will use these parameters to conduct a comprehensive assessment of closure activities and issues.

For this interim report, the committee examined the current status of closure plans for both the TOCDF and CAMDS based on presentations by key members of CMA staff and the systems contractor. It then developed a set of parameters based on this high-level evaluation to help ensure a consistently effective approach to the closures of the four currently operating CMA chemical agent disposal facilities. The committee also assessed regulatory requirements imposed by the state of Utah, where TOCDF and CAMDS are located.