The National Research Council (NRC) was asked by the National Defense Intelligence College (NDIC) to convene a committee to review the curriculum and syllabi for their proposed master of science degree in science and technology intelligence. The NRC was asked to review the material provided by the NDIC and offer advice and recommendations regarding the program's structure and goals of the Master of Science and Technology Intelligence (MS&TI) program.

The Committee for the Review of the Master's Degree Program for Science and Technology Professionals convened in May 2011, received extensive briefings and material from the NDIC faculty and administrators, and commenced a detailed review of the material. This letter report contains the findings and recommendations of the committee.

Review of the National Defense Intelligence College's Master's Degree in Science and Technology Intelligence centers on two general areas. First, the committee found that the biological sciences and systems engineering were underrepresented in the existing program structure. Secondly, the committee recommends that the NDIC faculty restructure the program and course learning objectives to focus more specifically on science and technology, with particular emphasis on the empirical measurement of student achievement. Given the dynamic and ever-changing nature of science and technology, the syllabi should continue to evolve as change occurs.
 

Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow's Warfighter--Symposium 2010

Released 12.07.10

The Symposium on Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow's Warfighter is a forum for consumers and producers of scientific and technical intelligence to exchange perspectives on the potential sources of emerging or disruptive technologies and behaviors, with the goal of improving the Department of Defense's technological warning capability. This volume summarizes the key themes identified in the second and most recent symposium, a two-day event held in Suffolk, Virginia, on April 28 and 29, 2010. The symposium combined presentations highlighting cutting-edge technology topics with facilitated discourse among all participants. Three categories of surprise were identified: breakthroughs in product and process technology, new uses of existing technology, and the unexpectedly rapid progression of a technology to operational use. The incorporation of an adversary's own culture, history, beliefs, and value systems into analyses also emerged in discussions as an important factor in reducing surprise.

Seeing Photons: Progress and Limits of Visible and Infrared Sensor Arrays

Released 08.17.10

The Department of Defense has recently highlighted intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities as a top priority for U.S. warfighters. Contributions provided by ISR assets in the operational theaters in Iraq and Afghanistan have been widely documented in press reporting. While the United States continues to increase investments in ISR capabilities, other nations not friendly to the United States will continue to seek countermeasures to U.S. capabilities.

To this end, the IC requested that the National Research Council (NRC) investigate and report on key visible and infrared detector technologies, with potential military utility, that are likely to be developed in the next 10-15 years.  

S&T Strategies of Six Countries: Implications for the United States

Released 08.12.10

 An increase in global access to goods and knowledge is transforming world-class S&T by bringing it within the capability of an unprecedented number of global parties who must compete for resources, markets, and talent. In particular, globalization has facilitated the success of formal S&T plans in many developing countries. Centers for technological research and development are now globally dispersed, setting the stage for greater uncertainty in the political, economic, and security areas. These changes will have a potentially enormous impact for U.S. national security policy. The report compares and contrasts science and technology plans of Japan, Brazil, Russia, India, China, and Singapore (JBRICS), predicts their likelihood of achieving national S&T goals, identifies nation-specific cultural issues as significant to prediction of S&T achievements and evaluates implications for U.S. national security strategy.

 Report Brief (PDF)

Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies-Report 2

Released 06.10.10

The term "disruptive technology" describes a technology that results in a sudden change affecting already established technologies or markets. Disruptive technologies cause one or more discontinuities in the normal evolutionary life cycle of technology. This may lead to an unexpected destabilization of an older technology order and an opportunity for new competitors to displace incumbents. Frequently cited examples include digital photography and desktop publishing.  

The first report of the series, Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies, discussed how technology forecasts were historically made, assessed various existing forecasting systems, and identified desirable attributes of a next-generation persistent long-term forecasting system for disruptive technologies. This second book attempts to sketch out high-level forecasting system designs. In addition, the book provides further evaluation of the system attributes defined in the first report, and evidence of the feasibility of creating a system with those attributes. Together, the reports are intended to help the Department of Defense and the intelligence community identify and develop a forecasting system that will assist in detecting and tracking global technology trends, producing persistent long-term forecasts of disruptive technologies, and characterizing their potential impact on future U.S. warfighting and homeland defense capabilities.

The Rise of Games and High Performance Computing for Modeling and Simulation

Released 1.26.10

The technical and cultural boundaries between modeling, simulation, and games are increasingly blurring, providing broader access to capabilities in modeling and simulation and further credibility to game-based applications. The purpose of this study is to provide a technical assessment of Modeling, Simulation, and Games (MS&G) research and development worldwide and to identify future applications of this technology and its potential impacts on government and society. Further, this study identifies feasible applications of gaming and simulation for military systems; associated vulnerabilities of, risks to, and impacts on critical defense capabilities; and other significant indicators and warnings that can help prevent or mitigate surprises related to technology applications by those with hostile intent. Finally, this book recommends priorities for future action by appropriate departments of the intelligence community, the Department of Defense research community, and other government entities.

The Rise of Games and High Performance Computing for Modeling and Simulation will serve as a useful tutorial and reference document for this particular era in the evolution of MS&G. The book also highlights a number of rising capabilities facilitated by MS&G to watch for in the coming years.

 

Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies

Released 09.29.09

 Technological innovations are key causal agents of surprise and disruption. In the recent past, the United States military has encountered unexpected challenges in the battlefield due in part to the adversary’s incorporation of technologies not traditionally associated with weaponry.  Recognizing the need to broaden the scope of current technology forecasting efforts, the Office of the Director, Defense Research and Engineering (DDR&E) and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) tasked the Committee for Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies with providing guidance and insight on how to build a persistent forecasting system to predict, analyze, and reduce the impact of the most dramatically disruptive technologies. The first of two reports, this volume analyzes existing forecasting methods and processes.  It then outlines the necessary characteristics of a comprehensive forecasting system that integrates data from diverse sources to identify potentially game-changing technological innovations and facilitates informed decision making by policymakers.

Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow's Warfighter: A Symposium Report

Released 09.08.09

On April 29, 2009 the National Research Council held a 1-day symposium titled, "Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow's Warfighter." This volume, a report of the symposium, highlights key challenges confronting the scientific and technical intelligence (S&TI) community and explores potential solutions that might enable the S&TI community to overcome those challenges.

The symposium captured comments and observations from representatives from combatant commands and supporting governmental organizations, together with those of symposium participants, in order to elucidate concepts and trends, knowledge of which could be used to improve the Department of Defense's technology warning capability. Topics addressed included issues stemming from globalization of science and technology, challenges to U.S. warfighters that could result from technology surprise, examples of past technological surprise, and the strengths and weaknesses of current S&TI analysis.

 Emerging Cognitive Neuroscience and Related Technologies

Released 09.09.08

 This report from the National Research Council, identifies and explores several specific research areas that have implications for U.S. national security, and should therefore be monitored consistently by the intelligence community. These areas include:

1. neurophysiological advances in detecting and measuring indicators of psychological states and intentions of individuals
2. the development of drugs or technologies that can alter human physical or cognitive abilities
3. advances in real-time brain imaging
4. breakthroughs in high-performance computing and neuronal modeling that could allow researchers to develop systems which mimic functions of the human brain, particularly the ability to organize disparate forms of data.

As these fields continue to grow, it will be imperative that the intelligence community be able to identify scientific advances relevant to national security when they occur. To do so will require adequate funding, intelligence analysts with advanced training in science and technology, and increased collaboration with the scientific community, particularly academia.

A key tool for the intelligence community, this book will also be a useful resource for the health industry, the military, and others with a vested interest in technologies such as brain imaging and cognitive or physical enhancers.

Nanophotonics: Accessibility and Applicability

Released 02.01.08

The Committee on Technology Insight-Gauge, Evaluate & Review set up by the NRC at the request of the Defense Intelligence Agency, has selected a number of emerging technologies to investigate for their potential threats to and opportunities for national security.  This first study focused on emerging applications of nanophotonics.  Nanophotonics is about the interaction of matter and light at the scale of the wavelength of the light.  Manipulation of matter at that scale allows tailoring the optical properties to permit a wide-range of commercial and defense applications.  This report presents a review of the nanoscale phenomena underpinning nanophotonics, an assessment of enabling technologies for developing new applications, an examination of potential military applications, and an assessment of foreign investment capabilities.

Critical Technology Accessibility (2006)

In 2003, the Defense Intelligence Agency asked the NRC to form a standing committee to help develop study topics about technology warning. One issue that was identified was the growing dependence on foreign suppliers of critical technology as a result of the increase in globalization of economic activity. Two important questions emerged for study: what is the risk of denial of critical products from foreign sources and what must the United States do to assure access to future critical products and technologies? This report presents an assessment addressing those two questions. It also provides an analysis of a strategic approach to manage the consequences of this trend towards increased globalization. Finally, the report offers a set of recommendations to implement this strategy and to increase assurance of access to critical technologies.

Avoiding Surprise In An Era Of Global Technology Advances (2005)

The global spread of science and technology expertise and the growing commercial access to advanced technologies with possible military application are creating potentially serious threats to the technological superiority underpinning U.S. military strength. Key to dealing with this situation is the ability of the U.S. intelligence community to be able to provide adequate and effective warning of evolving, critical technologies. To assist in performing this task, the Technology Warning Division of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to undertake a study examining technology warning issues. This report provides the first part of that study. It presents an assessment of critical, evolving technologies; postulates ways potential adversaries could disrupt these technologies; and provides indicators for the intelligence community to determine if such methods are under development. The intention of this report is to establish the foundation for a long-term relationship with the technology warning community to support the examination of technology warning issues.

Report Summary