The main objective of this pilot effort is to test the utility and feasibility of developing analytic frameworks for intelligence community analysts. The National Academies will develop four prototype frameworks that will help intelligence community analysts apply insights from the social and behavioral sciences to current intelligence problems.
- What factors determine the efficacy of efforts to (a) dissuade foreign actors from developing, sharing,
employing, or escalating the use of capabilities, and (b) respond after a capability has been employed to
make it less likely others will develop, share, or employ or escalate the use of a capability in the future?
- What factors determine how norms, rules, and institutions typically get established in a society
or network or among a group of actors?
- What factors and organizing principles bind societies or networks together and what factors
determine the legitimacy and appeal of their belief systems in the eyes of in-group members,
adversaries, and the indifferent?
- What factors determine how an individual or campaign is able to exert influence over individuals or groups?
For this pilot activity, the National Academies will convene three expert meetings for each of the four topics (for a total of 12 meetings) over a 12-month period to explore the development of four analytic frameworks. Each of the expert meetings will include approximately 8 invited experts knowledgeable in various disciplines within social and behavioral sciences and with expertise in translating science to practice.
For each framework, three layers of information will be generated: 1) foundational literature reviews from various disciplines containing information on how the topic/situation of interest is likely to evolve, 2) intermediate layer of information that synthesizes and describes key themes/concepts from literature reviews, 3) distillation of the key concepts that will list/display key drivers to help IC analysts to apply knowledge to the situation of interest.
The National Academies will engage two consultants to help frame needed literature reviews, synthesize these papers for the intermediate layer, and distill key concepts for the third layer that will depict key drivers. After all frameworks have been developed, the activity will conclude with a final public workshop to discuss the process, materials developed, the approaches used to develop the four frameworks, and lessons related to the usefulness and application of the frameworks.
Sponsor: Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Director for Science and Technology
Monica Whitley, Project Director
Adrienne Stith-Butler, Senior Program Officer
500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001