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Cycle 5 (2015 Deadline)

Satellite enhanced snowmelt flood and drought predictions for the Kabul River basin with surface and groundwater modeling

PI: Mohammad Najaf (, Kabul Polytechnic University, with co-PIs Jay Sagin, Nazarbayev University (Kazakhstan), and Muhammad Abid, COMSATS, (Pakistan)
U.S. Partner: Jennifer Jacobs, University of New Hampshire
Project Dates: March 2017 - January 2020

Project Overview:

The overall objectives of this research are to develop (1) the KRB flood prediction models using NASA satellite observations that capture the magnitude, timing, and spatial distribution of watershed scale snowmelt parameters; and (2) combined surface and ground water modeling and prediction analyses. The project aims to develop the integrated surface and groundwater modeling for the transboundary (Pakistan upstream and Afghanistan downstream) Kabul River Basin (KRB) with satellite enhanced snowmelt flood and drought predictions. The researchers will apply advanced NASA satellite data to track snow, snow melting, floods, surface water coverage, and droughts over the KRB. They will adapt cost-effective approaches using remote sensing data, with expertise provided by the U.S. partner Dr. Jacobs, based on her experience working on the NASA-supported project "Satellite Enhanced Snowmelt Flood Predictions in the Red River of the North Basin, USA." A lack of accurate snow depth and snow water equivalent data, and a lack of understanding of snowmelt processes and soil infiltration during soil freeze and thaw events in the KRB inhibit the ability to improve flood predictions. This project will improve the models by using satellite observations that capture the magnitude, timing, and spatial distribution of watershed-scale snowmelt parameters, as well as antecedent soil conditions. Most of the existing water-related research models were developed with separate components for the surface water and the groundwater, but this project will combine them into a more comprehensive model, which should facilitate better prediction analyses.

Beyond the expected capacity building impacts for project participants and improved modeling technologies, the project should promote better regional transboundary water cooperation outside of high-level intergovernmental channels by providing a platform for interactions among academia and community-level water management structures from Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, and the United States. University-led forums will be organized to promote improved sustainable management of shared water resources within the context of climate change in Central and South Asia. The project will also involve under-represented groups, including support for the Society of Women Engineers in Central Asia, Afghanistan, and Pakistan

Summary of Recent Activities:

Over the past few months, the project team continued their hydro modeling work and updated their database. They also prepared joint research papers with partners in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Kazakhstan. The following papers were submitted for review to various journals:

1. An Overview on Prospects of Floating Photovoltaic Technology
Muhammad Abid, Jay Sagin, Rabbia Murtaza, Jamal Abdul Naser Shokory, Mohammad Najaf Ibrahim, Toqeer Ahmed, Muhammad Zahir, Maxime Mussard, Dastan Sarbassov, Mohsin Shabbir
Submitted to IWA; Water Supply
2. Regional Cooperation in Climate Change Adaptation by the Efficient use of Water and Energy Resources through CASA-1000 Project
Georgiv Petrova, Khakim Akhmedova, Khasan Karimov, Muhammad Abid, Jay Sagin, Jamal Abdul Naser Shokory, Mohammad Najaf Ibrahim
Submitted to IWA; Water Policy
3. Water Quality of Kabul River and its Impacts on Health, Agriculture, Aquatic Life with Relation to Climate Change
Toqeer Ahmed, Muhammad Abid, Muhammad Zahir, Rabbia Murtaza, Jay Sagin, Maqbool Ahmad, Mohammad Daud Hamidi, Jamal Nasir Shakory
Submitted to; Journal of Water by MDPI
4. Water Harvesting Techniques to Alleviate Climate Change Effects in Afghanistan
Jamal Abdul Naser Shokory, Muhammad Abid, Jay Sagin, Jun-ichiro Giorgos Tsutsumi, Tooryalay Ayoubi, Ezatullah Rabanizada
Submitted to: Journal of Climate and Development by Taylor and Francis (online)
In addition, the PI and his co-PI, Muhammad Abid presented their PEER work in various conferences including the ISTC SAC Central Asian Water Forum” on 2-3 Nov, 2017 in Almaty Kazakhstan. Dr. Jay Sagin and Mohammad Daud Hamidi displayed posters regarding the PEER project defining its activities, ongoing actions and achievements. Dr. Jay Sagin also gave an oral presentation about his PEER grant and attendees showed a keen interest in the current activities and results.

In the next few months, the PI and his colleagues will be participating in the 6th Vietnam International Water Week (VACI2018) on 4-8 March, 2018 in Hanoi, Vietnam where they were invited to give talk talks on the PEER project activities.

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