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Cycle 8 (2019 Deadline)
Collaborative adaptation pathways for agricultural water management in the Bhavani Basin, India (Co-Adapt)
PI: Geethalakshmi Vellingiri (geetha@tnau.ac.in), Tamil Nadu Agricultural University
U.S. Partner: Venkataramana Sridhar, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
Project dates: December 2019 - May 2022
Project Overview:
 | | The project team holds a discussion with local villagers (photo courtesy of Dr. Geethalakshmi). |
Agricultural development in the Indian state of Tamil Nadu is constrained by water availability due to recurring droughts, which are increasingly being attributed to climate change and variability. This PEER study was designed to recommend adaptation strategies that will help manage the risks due to climate change in the agricultural sector of the Bhavani River basin in Tamil Nadu. Dr. Vellingiri and her colleagues employed CRIDA (Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis), a new approach that implements decision scaling and bottom-up vulnerability approaches through collaborative stepwise planning procedures and adaptation pathways. Using CRIDA, the team identified the “breaking point” of the agricultural system, the magnitude of climate change that will cause the system to cross that threshold, and the plausibility of reaching that state in the future. One goal was to propose several adaptation options to address the range of plausible future climate scenarios. Another key aspect of this study was the stakeholder consultation process, as well as development of a set of adaptation pathways that will inform policy makers on when to act.
This study was intended to deliver results for positive impacts on food security. By giving inputs to adaptation actions suited to the needs of the farmers and other stakeholders, in consultation with them, this project sought to increase the likelihood of those actions to be taken up for implementation The approach used in this study has the potential to be replicated at other river basins and sectors.
Final Summary of Project Activities
The PEER team members first identified, through conversations with stakeholders, performance objectives and metrics relevant to agricultural department officers and irrigation officers. They then developed a risk matrix by categorizing the risks as low, medium, and high, based on the performance metrics and the plausibility.
The researchers used these metrics while modeling the Lower Bhavani irrigation system using the ArcSWAT and Aquacrop models. They conducted a stress test using the water resources system model to examine how system performance responds to changes in climatic stressors. The stressors considered the range of change in climatic variables such as precipitation and temperature. The system was stressed to understand the response to 168 possible future climate conditions, involving a unique combination of changes in precipitation, temperature, and coefficient of variation. The PEER group analyzed the system performance under various combinations, including the aridity index, which incorporates changes in precipitation and temperature, and climate variability, as indicated by the coefficient of variation of precipitation.
Four adaptation options were identified, all related to demand management or conservation strategies. The options tested included aerobic rice cultivation, alternate wetting and drying, deficit irrigation, and delaying the transplanting of paddy by one month. All these alternative options were also subjected to stress testing using the same system model and were tested for the response in supply-demand ratio. The researchers found the pathway of delayed transplanting had least cost and maximum target benefits associated with it, if implemented as a demand management measure.
The team published their findings in a journal article and presented on risk-informed adaptation in agriculture and bottom-up approach to agricultural water management at two events in Kerala. The PI and her colleagues have received three additional grants to continue related work worth a total of $1.2 million.
Publication
Ambili G. Kamalamma, Mukand S. Babel, Venkataramana Sridhar, and Geethalakshmi Vellingiri. 2023. A novel approach to vulnerability assessment for adaptation planning in agriculture: An application to the Lower Bhavani Irrigation Project, India. Climate Services 30: 100358. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100358
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