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Cycle 6 (2017 Deadline)

Converging climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies into agglomeration policy for coastal metropolitan planning

PI: Harkunti Pertiwi Rahayu (, Institut Teknologi Bandung
U.S. Partner: Louise Comfort, University of Pittsburgh
Project Dates: December 2017 - November 2020

Project Overview

Existing and planned urban agglomerations in Indonesia, especially in coastal areas, are exposed to the impact of climate change and various coastal hazards, including tsunami. Of the 146 coastal municipalities in the country, 130 (or 89%) are exposed to tsunami risk. In the coming decades, climate-induced extreme events are expected to increase (IPCC, 2014), and for Indonesian coastal cities the impact may range from sea level rise (Latief et al, 2012) to changes in precipitation and increased surface temperature that may lead to negative impact across sectors (Bappenas, 2014). Moreover, the increasing concentration of economic activities in urban areas will make those agglomerated cities highly sensitive to impacts of disasters and climate change. This PEER project is aimed at filling the gaps of current climate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk reduction (DRR) strategies in Indonesia, which currently tend to work in silos. The aim is to develop locally relevant integration of DRR and CCA strategies that can protect and enhance the resilience of economic growth centers and agglomerated coastal cities by:
  1. Assessing associated coastal risks and climate change impact for coastal urban agglomeration, through identifying various coastal hazards induced by climate change impact at an early stage
  2. Exploring synergies and conflicts between DRR and CCA in coastal urban development policies
  3. Identifying innovative and integrated approaches that foster multi-stakeholder involvement and equal participation of groups, and indicators to characterize and measure DRR and CCA integration
  4. Developing a multi-stakeholder transition pathway and policy statement that integrate and mainstream DRR and CCA in development processes, including accommodating people’s right to access to early warnings using the Logic Model and Social Network Analysis Model
  5. Studying and estimating economic impact through statistics data. Based on historical data, estimation of the benefit-cost ratio of an integrated DDR and CCA strategies on regional development economic size will be made with a value to improve a more resilient economic growth
  6. Ensuring convergence and a coherent DRR and CCA strategies and policy instruments for mainstreaming into appropriate spatial and non-spatial planning documents
  7. Ensuring the integration of a coherence CCA and DRR plan and strategies into the Improvement of Local Disaster Management Plan covering jurisdictions of each agglomerated urban area
  8. Ensuring the upscaling of the Improved Local Disaster Management Plan into the Regional Disaster Management Plan covering all jurisdictions of agglomerated urban areas
This research project, which advocates an integrated concept and implementation guidelines on DDR and CCA for urban coastal areas in Indonesia, should have a positive impact in promoting resilient development. Tentatively, this research focus includes national strategic areas in the Mamminasata (Makassar-Maros-Sunggumiansa and Takalar) metropolitan area in South Sulawesi Province and ITBM Palapa metropolitan area (Indarung, Teluk Bayur, Bungus, Mandeh, Padang, Pariaman and Padang Pariaman) in West Sumatra Province. The ITBM Palapa metropolitan area provides the logistical and transportation hub for other provinces in the west coast of Sumatra Island, while Mamminasata has greater role as the key and main port for both Sulawesi island and also the rest of eastern Indonesia. Given the high level of development and high economic growth rate in these two areas, protecting and improving resilience of both ITBM Palapa and Mamminasata from various coastal hazards should have a positive impact on Indonesia’s development in general. Both provinces are also champions in terms of innovative development, so if an integrated DRR-CCA effort can be introduced there, it is likely that other provinces in Sumatra and Sulawesi will follow suit. ITBM Palapa and Mamminasata can become models of disaster- and climate-resilient investment and development.

Summary of Recent Activities

6-025 Pad City Emergency Op Center
The PEER team visits the Padang City Emergency Operations Center during filming of a documentary on their previous project under PEER Cycle 3 (photo courtesy of Dr. Harkunti).
During the period of January – March 2020, the ITB PEER team conducted several analyses regarding their research. For example, they have been running a structural equation model (SEM) for community capacity data in order to identify DRR and CCA efforts that can significantly increase community capacity. They have also analyzed the data capacity of business and government entities using analytic hierarchy process modeling. The researchers also devoted time to analyzing content from their January 2019 focus group discussion to map actors and activities related to DRR and CCA coastal hazard in the study area. Finally, they have analyzed the content of provincial, district, and city-level policy documents in the study area to identify links between activities outlined in each document and the stakeholder network in the implementation of DRR and CCA efforts.

In addition, the ITB PEER team also organized two events as supporting activities to the PEER research dissemination and publication efforts. The 4th International Workshop on Multi-hazard Early Warning and Resilience Building in Coastal Communities was conducted at ITB January 6-10, 2020, with more than 50 delegates representing 19 universities from Europe and Asia. This workshop aimed to build capacity for international and regional cooperation between Higher Education Institutes (HEIs) in Asia and Europe, and among Asian HEIs themselves, to improve multi-hazard early warning (MHEW) and increase disaster resilience among coastal communities. In the opening ceremony, as PI of this workshop, Dr. Harkunti P. Rahayu stated the importance of applying the output of disaster research resulted from academics/universities in the world. She also stated that the role of ITB in the three-pillar of higher education (i.e. education, research and community service) is one example of how universities can make efforts for disaster risk reduction. Urgent emphasis must be placed on developing multi-hazard early warning system with the ultimate objective of reaching the last mile communities and building resilient societies and communities.

As part of ITB’s centennial commemoration, the ITB PEER team was also organized the 4th ITB Centennial International Conference on Disaster Management (ITB IC04 P100) - 9th International Conference on Building Resilience (ICBR09), which was conducted on January 13-15 in Nusa Dua, Bali, Indonesia. The theme of conference was “Investing Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation for Building Resilience Cities.” The conference welcomed a prestigious group of foreign and Indonesian keynote speakers, including the Minister of Planning and National Development/Head of National Planning Agency; head of the National Disaster Management Agency; head of the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysical Agency; and experts from Huddersfield University (UK), the University of Pittsburgh (USA), the University of Calgary (Canada), Koichi University of Technology (Japan), and others. The conference also conducted parallel sessions in which more than 100 scientific papers were presented in 12 thematic tracks, in addition to a special track for Doctoral School Programs. In this conference, the ITB PEER team presented several research results regarding to their PEER Cycle 6 research, such as the resilience level in Padang and Makassar City.

On February 18-19, Dr. Rahayu attended the Working Group on Tsunamis and Other Hazards Related to Sea-Level Warning and Mitigation Systems (TOWS-WG) Task Team on Disaster Management and Preparedness in Paris, France. The task of TOWS-WG is primarily to advise the Governing Bodies of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission on coordinated development and implementation of activities on warning and mitigation systems for tsunamis and other sea level-related hazards of common priority to all. In addition to her participation as an invited member of this international body, Dr. Rahayu in her capacity as chair of the Indonesia Disaster Expert Association received an award from the National Disaster Management Organization (BNPB Indonesia), recognizing her organization for its work in providing scientifically based contributions to implementing disaster risk reduction initiatives in Indonesia. The award was given during BNPB’s National Coordination Meeting in Sentul on February 4, 2020. Also during the first quarter, Dr. Rahayu received a research award from the rector of ITB.

Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the PI has had to postpone the planned survey to assess stakeholder and disaster risk reduction activities network in PALAPA and MAMMINASATA, which had been planned for March-July 2020. The ITB campus in Bandung is in Indonesia’s COVID-19 red zone, as are the study locations in Makassar and Padang. Movements throughout all three cities is very restricted, and ITB is on a complete shutdown, which is causing administrative delays and disrupting coordination among researchers. Despite this unprecedented situation, Dr. Rahayu and her team are continuing to work from home on the project. During the second and third quarters of 2020, they will conduct DNA and SNA analysis based on the results of document analyses and focus group discussions. They will also conduct stakeholder interviews in the study areas to compare DNA and SNA based on documents and actual conditions. If the COVID-19 restrictions are not lifted, making it impossible to conduct the surveys in person, they will be carried out through online media.

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