PARTNERSHIPS FOR ENHANCED ENGAGEMENT IN RESEARCH (PEER) Cycle 6 (2017 Deadline) Converging climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies into agglomeration policy for coastal metropolitan planning PI: Harkunti Pertiwi Rahayu (harkunti@pl.itb.ac.id), Institut Teknologi Bandung U.S. Partner: Louise Comfort, University of Pittsburgh Project Dates: December 2017 - September 2022 Project Overview Existing and planned urban agglomerations in Indonesia, especially in coastal areas, are exposed to the impact of climate change and various coastal hazards, including tsunami. Of the 146 coastal municipalities in the country, 130 (or 89%) are exposed to tsunami risk. In the coming decades, climate-induced extreme events are expected to increase (IPCC, 2014), and for Indonesian coastal cities the impact may range from sea level rise (Latief et al, 2012) to changes in precipitation and increased surface temperature that may lead to negative impact across sectors (Bappenas, 2014). Moreover, the increasing concentration of economic activities in urban areas will make those agglomerated cities highly sensitive to impacts of disasters and climate change. This PEER project is aimed at filling the gaps of current climate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk reduction (DRR) strategies in Indonesia, which currently tend to work in silos. The aim is to develop locally relevant integration of DRR and CCA strategies that can protect and enhance the resilience of economic growth centers and agglomerated coastal cities by: Assessing associated coastal risks and climate change impact for coastal urban agglomeration, through identifying various coastal hazards induced by climate change impact at an early stage Exploring synergies and conflicts between DRR and CCA in coastal urban development policies Identifying innovative and integrated approaches that foster multi-stakeholder involvement and equal participation of groups, and indicators to characterize and measure DRR and CCA integration Developing a multi-stakeholder transition pathway and policy statement that integrate and mainstream DRR and CCA in development processes, including accommodating people’s right to access to early warnings using the Logic Model and Social Network Analysis Model Studying and estimating economic impact through statistics data. Based on historical data, estimation of the benefit-cost ratio of an integrated DRR and CCA strategies on regional development economic size will be made with a value to improve a more resilient economic growth Ensuring convergence and a coherent DRR and CCA strategies and policy instruments for mainstreaming into appropriate spatial and non-spatial planning documents Ensuring the integration of a coherence CCA and DRR plan and strategies into the Improvement of Local Disaster Management Plan covering jurisdictions of each agglomerated urban area Ensuring the upscaling of the Improved Local Disaster Management Plan into the Regional Disaster Management Plan covering all jurisdictions of agglomerated urban areas This research project, which advocates an integrated concept and implementation guidelines on DRR and CCA for urban coastal areas in Indonesia, should have a positive impact in promoting resilient development. Tentatively, this research focus includes national strategic areas in the Mamminasata (Makassar-Maros-Sunggumiansa and Takalar) metropolitan area in South Sulawesi Province and ITBM Palapa metropolitan area (Indarung, Teluk Bayur, Bungus, Mandeh, Padang, Pariaman and Padang Pariaman) in West Sumatra Province. The ITBM Palapa metropolitan area provides the logistical and transportation hub for other provinces in the west coast of Sumatra Island, while Mamminasata has greater role as the key and main port for both Sulawesi island and also the rest of eastern Indonesia. Given the high level of development and high economic growth rate in these two areas, protecting and improving resilience of both ITBM Palapa and Mamminasata from various coastal hazards should have a positive impact on Indonesia’s development in general. Both provinces are also champions in terms of innovative development, so if an integrated DRR-CCA effort can be introduced there, it is likely that other provinces in Sumatra and Sulawesi will follow suit. ITBM Palapa and Mamminasata can become models of disaster- and climate-resilient investment and development. Final Summary of Project Activities The PEER team visits the Padang City Emergency Operations Center during filming of a documentary on their previous project under PEER Cycle 3 (photo courtesy of Dr. Harkunti). This project, which ran nearly five years and ended on September 30, 2022, produced several outputs of direct practical relevance to disaster planning in Indonesia both overall and in the specific areas Dr. Harkunti and her team studied. The two focus areas were Mamminasata (the Makassar-Maros-Sungguminasa-Takalar metropolitan area on the island of Sulawesi) and Palapa (the Padang-Lubuk Alung-Pariaman metropolitan area on the island of Sumatra): 1. Convergence of CCA-DRR framework and indicators 2. Flood model in Mamminasata and Palapa metropolitan areas 3. Tsunami model in Mamminasata and Palapa metropolitan areas 4. Risk profile in Mamminasata and Palapa metropolitan areas 5. Compilation of community resilience factors in both study locations 6. Discourse network model 7. Multi-level stakeholder model in DRR and CCA 8. List of DRR-CCA priority activities The PI and her colleagues formulated these outputs into a policy brief or vision paper for both case study locations. The local government in those areas can refer to the vision paper to develop a science-based policy for agglomeration areas. For example, the Mamminasata metropolitan area is currently revising its spatial plan. Therefore, the PEER team’s results provide them with a better understanding of key stakeholders regarding disaster and climate change impacts in Mamminasata. By knowing the disaster conditions in the area, policymakers can plan developments according to their situations, which should result in agglomeration resilience. In addition to the outputs listed above, training and capacity building for Indonesian students, officials, and practitioners was also greatly enhanced by this project. In her role as a faculty member at ITB, Dr. Harkunti modified and improved the curricula for four courses, which were taken by 589 students. Disaster Management Planning Studio Introduction of Disaster Mitigation Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Aspects in Tourism Planning Disaster Aspects in Urban Planning (this undergraduate elective course has also been selected for inclusion in the nationwide program Independent Campus, Freedom to Learn, or Merdeka Belajar - Kampus Merdeka, which allows students to earn up to 40 percent of the credits for their degrees from courses offered outside their own universities) Several training courses were also conducted during the project, including a Training of Trainers on Tsunami Evacuation Maps, Plans and Procedures (TEMPP-3). The training was hosted by the Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG) at its Training and Education Center at Citeko, Cisarua, Indonesia, November 22 to December 1, 2018, under the auspices of The Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System (ICG/IOTWMS) as part of its partnership agreement with IOC-UNESCO in support of IOTIC. Throughout the training, participants collaborated in the development of Tsunami Evacuation Maps, Plans and Procedures. Dr. Harkunti was the resource person in this training, while the research assistant (Deri S. Rohman) also participated as a trainee. Dr. Harkunti also served as a resource person in Standard Operating Procedures Training conducted by The Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System (ICG/IOTWMS). She also presented lectures for two sessions (Tsunami Hazards and Risk Reduction and Piloting Tsunami Ready and Applying for Recognition) of a six-part online lecture series conducted by UNESCO-IOC Indian Ocean Tsunami Information Centre (IOTIC) in September-October 2020. This program targeted community leaders, disaster management offices, and NGOs to inform about the UNESCO-IOC Tsunami Ready Program and encourage them to implement the program’s indicators and to be recognized as Tsunami Ready community by IOC. Dr. Harkunti Rahayu was a lecturer for two sessions, and approximately 360 participants joined each session. By the time the final report was submitted in 2022, Dr. Harkunti reported that she and her team had already received more than $329,000 in new research grants (four from international funders and three from Indonesian sponsors). In the future, the research team will strive to mainstream research results further into agglomeration area planning policies. Because the research results have a clear policy basis, they hope that the impact will be broader and measurable. Although the PEER project has ended, Dr. Harkunti and her colleagues continue their work, both in collaboration with their U.S. partner Dr. Louise Comfort and in partnership with the various Indonesian stakeholders involved in their study. In addition, they also plan to formulate a new research project by replicating their research model in other agglomeration areas with different disaster characteristics. As of late 2022, the team was carrying out ongoing research related to the hydrometeorology disaster in metropolitan Jabodetabek (the Greater Jakarta area, made up of Jakarta, Bogor, Depok, Tangerang, and Bekasi). They also plan to develop their research methodology for the Bandung Raya metropolitan area, which suffers from even more diverse disasters (i.e., geological hazards, hydrometeorology, and pandemics). A funding assistance program is currently helping the team continue the research. For the in-depth research on tsunami early warning systems, the Swiss Re Foundation funded the activity in Padang and Mentawai Island. Another grant from Yayasan Anak Bangsa Bisa (YABB) will support further study in Makassar. This project will also cover Lampung and Semarang as a comparison to Makassar. Work is under way to produce book manuscripts and several scientific papers for publication in peer-reviewed journals. Publications Sakalasuriya, M.M., Rahayu, H., Haigh, R., Amaratunga, D., Wahdiny, I.I. (2022). Post-tsunami Indonesia: an enquiry into the success of interface in Indonesian tsunami early warning system. In: Mardiah, A.N., Olshansky, R.B., Bisri, M.B. (eds) Post-Disaster Governance in Southeast Asia. Disaster Risk Reduction. Springer, Singapore. https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-16-7401-3 Clegg, G., Haigh, R., Amaratunga, D., Rahayu, H. (2021). Transboundary river governance practices for flood risk reduction in Europe: a review. In: Amaratunga, D., Haigh, R., Dias, N. (eds) Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Disaster Risks. Springer, Cham. https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-73003-1 Rahayu, H., Khoirunnisa, D., Rohman, D., Asman, A., and Kombaitan. B. (2021). What are the essentials for community resilience against recurring floods? International Journal on Advanced Science, Engineering and Information Technology 11(6): 2233-2239. https://doi.org/10.18517/ijaseit.11.6.14208 Clegg, G., Haigh, R., Amaratunga, D., Rahayu, H., Karunarathna, H., and Septiadi, D. (2021). A conceptual framework for flood impact mitigation through transboundary river management. International Journal on Advanced Science, Engineering and Information Technology 11(3): 880. https://doi.org/10.18517/ijaseit.11.3.14329 Sakalasuriya, M., Haigh, R., Hettige, S., Amaratunga, D., Basnayake, S., and Rahayu, H. (2020). Governance, institutions and people within the interface of a tsunami early warning system. Politics and Governance 8(4): 432-444. https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v8i4.3159 Rahayu, H., Haigh, R., Amaratunga, D., & Sakalasuriya, M. (2019). A briefing paper for the interface of Ina-TEWS: Improving the upstream-downstream interface in the Indonesian end to end tsunami early warning and mitigation system (Ina-TEWS). Rahayu, H., Comfort, L.K., Haigh, R., Amaratunga, D. and Khoirunnisa, D. (2019). "A study of people-centered early warning system in the face of near-field tsunami risk for Indonesian coastal cities." International Journal of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment 11(2): 241-262. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJDRBE-10-2019-0068 Rahayu, H., Haigh, R., Amaratunga, D., Kombaitan, B., Khoirunnisa, D. and Pradana, V. (2019). “A micro scale study of climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction in coastal urban strategic planning for the Jakarta.” International Journal of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment 11(1): 119-133. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJDRBE-10-2019-0073 Rahayu, H., Haigh, R., and Amaratunga, D. (2018). Strategic challenges in development planning for Denpasar City and the coastal urban agglomeration of Sarbagita. Procedia engineering 212, 1347-1354. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2018.01.174 Back to PEER Cycle 6 Grant Recipients