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Cycle 6 (2017 Deadline)

Converging climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies into agglomeration policy for coastal metropolitan planning

PI: Harkunti Pertiwi Rahayu (, Institut Teknologi Bandung
U.S. Partner: Louise Comfort, University of Pittsburgh
Project Dates: December 2017 - November 2020

Project Overview

Existing and planned urban agglomerations in Indonesia, especially in coastal areas, are exposed to the impact of climate change and various coastal hazards, including tsunami. Of the 146 coastal municipalities in the country, 130 (or 89%) are exposed to tsunami risk. In the coming decades, climate-induced extreme events are expected to increase (IPCC, 2014), and for Indonesian coastal cities the impact may range from sea level rise (Latief et al, 2012) to changes in precipitation and increased surface temperature that may lead to negative impact across sectors (Bappenas, 2014). Moreover, the increasing concentration of economic activities in urban areas will make those agglomerated cities highly sensitive to impacts of disasters and climate change. This PEER project is aimed at filling the gaps of current climate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk reduction (DRR) strategies in Indonesia, which currently tend to work in silos. The aim is to develop locally relevant integration of DRR and CCA strategies that can protect and enhance the resilience of economic growth centers and agglomerated coastal cities by:
  1. Assessing associated coastal risks and climate change impact for coastal urban agglomeration, through identifying various coastal hazards induced by climate change impact at an early stage
  2. Exploring synergies and conflicts between DRR and CCA in coastal urban development policies
  3. Identifying innovative and integrated approaches that foster multi-stakeholder involvement and equal participation of groups, and indicators to characterize and measure DRR and CCA integration
  4. Developing a multi-stakeholder transition pathway and policy statement that integrate and mainstream DRR and CCA in development processes, including accommodating people’s right to access to early warnings using the Logic Model and Social Network Analysis Model
  5. Studying and estimating economic impact through statistics data. Based on historical data, estimation of the benefit-cost ratio of an integrated DDR and CCA strategies on regional development economic size will be made with a value to improve a more resilient economic growth
  6. Ensuring convergence and a coherent DRR and CCA strategies and policy instruments for mainstreaming into appropriate spatial and non-spatial planning documents
  7. Ensuring the integration of a coherence CCA and DRR plan and strategies into the Improvement of Local Disaster Management Plan covering jurisdictions of each agglomerated urban area
  8. Ensuring the upscaling of the Improved Local Disaster Management Plan into the Regional Disaster Management Plan covering all jurisdictions of agglomerated urban areas
This research project, which advocates an integrated concept and implementation guidelines on DDR and CCA for urban coastal areas in Indonesia, should have a positive impact in promoting resilient development. Tentatively, this research focus includes national strategic areas in the Mamminasata (Makassar-Maros-Sunggumiansa and Takalar) metropolitan area in South Sulawesi Province and ITBM Palapa metropolitan area (Indarung, Teluk Bayur, Bungus, Mandeh, Padang, Pariaman and Padang Pariaman) in West Sumatra Province. The ITBM Palapa metropolitan area provides the logistical and transportation hub for other provinces in the west coast of Sumatra Island, while Mamminasata has greater role as the key and main port for both Sulawesi island and also the rest of eastern Indonesia. Given the high level of development and high economic growth rate in these two areas, protecting and improving resilience of both ITBM Palapa and Mamminasata from various coastal hazards should have a positive impact on Indonesia’s development in general. Both provinces are also champions in terms of innovative development, so if an integrated DRR-CCA effort can be introduced there, it is likely that other provinces in Sumatra and Sulawesi will follow suit. ITBM Palapa and Mamminasata can become models of disaster- and climate-resilient investment and development.

Summary of Recent Activities

6-025 Pad City Emergency Op Center
The PEER team visits the Padang City Emergency Operations Center during filming of a documentary on their previous project under PEER Cycle 3 (photo courtesy of Dr. Harkunti).
Activities on this project during the last quarter of 2019 mainly focused on data analysis. The PI Dr. Rahayu and her team worked on calculating the community and business entity resilience index in their two metropolitan focus areas, Palapa and Mamminasata, using the principal component analysis method from each city/district of the two regions. They also calculated the vulnerability index in the Mamminasata area using the analytical hierarchy process method and then used the index to produce a vulnerability map.

In this reporting period, Dr. Rahayu and her partners from Huddersfield University also won the prestigious 2020 Newton Prize. This prize recognizes the best research and innovation project amongst the more than 150 funded between Indonesia and the United Kingdom from 2016 to 2019. The winning entry was based on research on project “Mainstreaming Integrated Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation into Coastal Urban Agglomeration Policy” and a new proposal looking at “Developing and Harmonizing Local Tsunami Early Warning.” The Newton Prize is supported by the UK’s Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy.

January 2020 has been very busy for the team, as they organized and took part in two major dissemination events. The first was the 4th International Workshop on Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Resilient Building of Coastal Communities, under the auspices of the European Union-supported CABARET project (Capacity Building in Asia for Resilience EducaTion). The workshop was conducted January 6-10, 2020, at the ITB campus, with 70+ delegates representing 19 universities from Europe and Asia, as well as a large number of end users and policy agency representatives. The second event was a pair of conferences held concurrently in Nusa Dua, Bali, January 13-15: the 4th ITB Centennial International Conference on Disaster Management (ITB IC04 P100) and the 9th International Conference on Building Resilience (ICBR09). PEER researchers also joined in the events as scientific committee members, and the U.S. partner on the project, Professor Louise K. Comfort, was one of the keynote speakers. These events involved participants representing more than 20 universities from 38 countries in Europe and Asia, who presented more than 100 scientific papers in 12 topical tracks. The conferences provide a great opportunity for the ITB PEER team to connect with researchers from other countries and explore opportunities for joint research. The ITB team also connected with officials from several Indonesian ministries, including the Ministry of Planning and National Development/National Planning Agency; National Disaster Management Agency; Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysical Agency; Ministry of Public Works; and Ministry of Transportation. Several international organizations also participated in these two events, including the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center, the USAID APIK (Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience) Program, and the international NGO All Hands and Hearts, all of which have potential for future research collaboration with this PEER project.

From February through July 2020, Dr. Rahayu reports that she and her team will continue their work along several lines. They will continue the process of Risk Analysis for their two agglomeration regions and generate several maps focusing on vulnerability, capacity, and risk for the two agglomeration areas, i.e. Mamminasata and Palapa. The researchers will also develop several action plans in response to the results from the risk assessments. They will collect additional data through surveys and semi-structured interviews and conduct a literature review for metropolitan agglomeration planning and policy review and mainstreaming coherence for climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction.

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