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Cycle 9 (2020 Deadline)
Long-term impacts of land-use/land-cover dynamics on surface water quality in Botswana’s reservoirs using satellite data and artificial intelligence methods: Case study of the Botswana’s Limpopo River Basin (1984-2019)
PI: Yashon Ouma (yashon.ouma@mopipi.ub.bw), University of Botswana
U.S. Partner: Jiaguo Qi, Michigan State University
Project Dates:
Project Overview:
The rising demand for water, food, and energy due to increasing population continues to create immense pressure on water resources. In particular, water quality around the globe is systematically degrading, primarily due to climate change and agricultural intensification associated with rapid population growth and urbanization. In-depth assessments of the inter-linkages between land–water resources that combine land-use and water quality and availability within the catchment supply chains such as the Limpopo River Basin (LRB) in southern Africa are still lacking.
For water supply, semi-arid Botswana relies on the reservoirs within the Botswana’s LRB. Reservoirs are particularly susceptible to the negative impacts of land-use and land-cover (LULC) activities and runoff because of their complex dynamics, relatively longer water residence times, and their role as an integrating sink for pollutants from their drainage basins. Despite these interrelationships and significance in regional and global economic stability, land and water (L-W) are often treated in “silos”. To understand the complex L-W nexus within the LRB, this study will use data-driven artificial intelligence for quantitative determination of the relationships between LULC change, together with socioeconomic development indicators and climate change, and their impacts on water quality and availability within the basin, both for 1984-2019 and to predict future scenarios (2020-2050). To advance data acquisition for LULC analysis and climate change, the study utilizes optical Earth-observation and meteorological satellite data. To provide near real-time and cost-effective approach for continuous monitoring of reservoir water quality within the basin, the study will develop empirical models for water quality estimation and water quality index mapping using 35-years of in-situ water quality measurements and water spectral observations using drone-borne spectrometer and optical satellite imagery through regression modeling and geospatial methods.
This project addresses the scope of the solicitation by quantifying land change trajectories in an important region in southern Africa, understanding the physical and social causes and impacts of these dynamics on water quality, thereby advancing land change science and water quality dynamics, while providing policy relevant information on governance options. The project speaks to and will contribute towards Botswana's Sustainable Development Goals as mapped in the National Development Plan (NDP11) and Vision 2036 pillars on sustainable development, sustainable environment, and sustainable use of natural resources. The study results will be beneficial to the government policymakers and development partners including the USAID Southern Africa Resilience in Limpopo River Basin (RESILIM) project, the Limpopo Watercourse Commission (LIMCOM), and government ministries, including the Ministry of Land Management, Water and Sanitation Services (MLMWSS). Specifically, the study will contribute to the USAIID-RESILIM and LIMCOM work on the enhancement of the resilience of the people and ecosystems within the water-stressed Limpopo River Basin.
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