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Bhutan (2021 Deadline)
Impact of climate change on alpine timberline and its socioeconomic impact on highlanders in Bhutan
PI: Changa Tshering (ctshering@uwice.gov.bt), Ugyen Wangchuck Institute for Conservation and Environmental Research
U.S. Partner: Steven William Running, University of Montana
Project Dates: April 2022 - March 2024
Project Overview
Timberline is one of the most conspicuous boundaries between forest and alpine. In Bhutan, this region is considered more vulnerable to climate change due to amplified warming and the presence of marginalized communities. The existing research from these areas has mainly focused on glacier melts, snow cover dynamics, glacier lake flood, and field monitoring of alpine vegetation. Very few empirical studies have been conducted to assess how timberline has advanced or retreated in response to climate warming in Bhutan, due to challenging and inaccessible topography and lack of professional capacity. Increasing availability of satellite data and cloud computing platforms offers new opportunities to monitor timberline dynamics more consistently, reliably, frequently, and with fewer resources. The Google Earth Engine, a web-based platform, provides access to an entire archive of Landsat data and high computing speed to process data without the need to download the satellite data. In addition, its capability to apply standard and uniform change detection algorithms to Landsat data over multiple years ensures the consistent and reliable comparison of forest cover change over decades.
The main goal of this PEER project was to compare the forest cover from 1980 sequentially, by decade, with the current forest cover. Dr. Changa Tshering and his group sought to quantify and monitor the shift in alpine timberline in the Bhutan Himalaya. The project provided crucial evidence on the timberline's response to climate change and assessed its threats to some of the highly endemic and endangered alpine biodiversity. In addition, the project included a socioeconomic research component aimed at understanding how the vegetation shift has forced changes in the livelihoods of alpine nomadic herders.
Final Summary of Project Activities
The researchers analyzed satellite image data to determine treeline ecotone shift over a period of decades. Fifteen project staff were trained on the use of Google Earth Engine to study landscape dynamics. The PEER team also undertook biophysical field data collection from the Merak and Sakteng regions of Eastern Bhutan. This collection was designed to validate satellite image analysis findings.
In addition to collecting vegetation data, the field team also carried out tree coring and collected tree ring data from these regions to understand tree stand establishment in the research sites. Around 20 unemployed youths from the area were recruited as field data collectors for one month and were trained in ecological survey methods and dendrochronological coring.
In the complementary social science component of the project, the PI led socioconomic survey training for 14 youths in Merak and Sakteng, and with their help, he and his colleagues completed a survey of 228 households in that locality. While in the area, the researchers also carried out some additional drone mapping of their sample area. In Laya, they trained 10 youths and surveyed 160 households despite the fact that their visit coincided with a four-day heavy snowstorm.
The PI visited his U.S. partner in Montana during the project period to carry out satellite data processing and analysis. The PEER project provided support to purchase equipment like drones and GPS for conducting field surveys, improving the infrastructure for future efforts. The team continues working to draft papers on their work even now that the project has ended.
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