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Cycle 4 (2015 Deadline)
Risk management and risk assessment of water resources of the Amu Darya river basin under conditions of climate change and construction of large reservoirs
PI: Inom Normatov (inomnor@mail.ru), Institute of Water Problems, Hydropower, and Ecology of the Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Tajikistan
U.S. Partner: Mary Brodzik, University of Colorado at Boulder
Project Dates: December 2015 - May 2019
Project Overview
Central Asia’s rapid population growth will likely lead to 15-20% increases in water consumption in the region by 2030, according to one estimate. In addition, resources from natural drainage in the Aral Sea basin have been greatly reduced, and water deficiency is an increasing problem, with water demand now reaching 100-110% of capacity in the Amudarya River Basin. Urgent measures to adapt to significant climate changes and promote efficient water resource management in the region are needed. About 60% of the water that potentially flows to the lower Aral Basin originates in the high mountains of Tajikistan, where dams control and regulate the annual flow regime. The demand for winter hydropower generation in the upstream countries conflicts with the summer demand for irrigation in the downstream parts of the basin. In addition, available water resources are limited due to siltation and reduced storage capacities. Summer runoff generation has been affected by glacier shrinkage, but this change has not been taken into account in official negotiations. This PEER project was designed to provide a clearer picture of available water resources and to predict changes likely to occur into the future.
Final Summary of Project Activities
Dr. Normatov and his team undertook several expeditions to the Vakhsh River Basin to study the isotopic composition of the river and its tributaries, including Vakhsh-Kyzilsu, Muksu, Obi Mazor, Obikhingou, and Surkhob. The water samples they collected were sent to the University of Colorado, Boulder for isotopic analysis, and two staff members from the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research at UC Boulder traveled to Dushanbe to conduct a one-week course on sampling techniques and storage, which was attended by PEER project members and students at Tajik National University.
The researchers analyzed meteorological parameters of two regions of Tajikistan—Dangara and Fayzabad. An additional expedition to the Vakhsh River Basin resulted in the collection of nearly 300 samples of water and snow, and the researchers also installed rainfall sampling devices. In addition, the team analyzed historical meteorological data, including atmospheric precipitation and formation of snow cover on the Fedchenko glacier. Two PEER researchers took part in an expedition to study the glacier status of the Surkhob River Basin, sampling ice, snow, and water from the river, while another measured tributary water flow to the Nurek reservoir, measuring lateral inflow and determining the dependence of the inflow from the average annual water discharge at the Darband Hydropost. The team carried out further research to study the influence of the Nurek reservoir on the meteorological conditions of coastal agricultural areas, using data from three meteorological stations in coastal areas.
The team developed a number of methodologies for monitoring water-ice objects and snow cover of the Amu Darya River tributaries, which allowed them to predict expected volumes of river waters depending on climatic factors. The project also helped develop two university-level courses on hydrochemistry and hydrological processes at Tajik National University.
The PI shared findings from the work with local populations through an NGO, and PEER team members presented results at several international conferences, as well as through several papers and books. The project team took part in an international conference in Dushanbe on risk assessment and risk management of water resources in transboundary river basins of Central Asia. About 100 people from higher education, research institutions, NGOs and government organizations from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia attended. The researchers also sent recommendations to state ministries and departments.
Publications
Inom Normatov and Parviz Normatov. 2020. Climate change impact on hydrological characteristics and water availability of the Mountain Pamir Rivers. Proceedings of the IAHS 383: 31–41. https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-31-2020
Parviz I. Normatov and Inom Sh. Normatov. 2018. Monitoring of meteorological, hydrological conditions and water quality of the main tributaries of the Transboundary Amu Darya River. Chapter 9 in Integrated River Basin Management for Sustainable Development of Regions. http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.74958
P.I. Normatov, G.T. Frumin, I.Sh. Normatov, and B.A. Markaev B.A. 2018. Hydrochemistry and isotopic composition of the Vakhsh river and its tributaries [in Russian with English abstract]. Proceedings of the Russian State Hydrometeorological University 50: 81-87. https://www.rshu.ru/university/notes/archive/issue50/UZ-50-el-81-87.pdf
Parviz Normatov, Inom Normatov, Abulqosim Muminov, and Naim Narzulloev. 2017. Ecological Aspects of the Transboundary Rivers Water Resource Management of the Central Asia. Modern Environmental Science and Engineering 3(11): 796-804. https://doi.org/10.15341/mese(2333-2581)/11.03.2017/007
P.I. Normatov, G.T. Frumin, A.O. Muminov, and I.Sh. Normatov. 2017. The water isotope composition (δ2H, δ18O) of the transboundary Zeravshan and Vakhsh rivers and their tributaries. Geographical Bulletin 4(43): 97-104. https://doi.org/10.17072/2079-7877-2017-4-97-104
Inom Normatov, Abulqosim Muminov, and Parviz Normatov. 2016. The Impact of Water Reservoirs on Biodiversity and Food Security and the Creation of Adaptation Mechanisms. International Journal of Environmental, Chemical, Ecological, Geological and Geophysical Engineering 10(5): 564-570. http://scholar.waset.org/1307-6892/10004558
Parviz Normatov, Bakhtiyor Markaev, and Inom Normatov. 2016. Monitoring of change of the Vakhsh river and tributaries hydrology in condition of climate change. International Journal of Management and Applied Science 2(10): 55-58. http://iraj.doionline.org/dx/IJMAS-IRAJ-DOIONLINE-6128
Inom Normatov, Abulqosim Muminov, and Parviz Normatov. 2016. Perspective of the Agriculture Development of the Mountain Areas in Modern Condition of Climate Change. Chapter 4 in Geostatistical and Geospatial Approaches for the Characterization of Natural Resources in the Environment: Challenges, Processes and Strategies, N. Raju, and N. Janardhana, eds. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-18663-4_144
P. I. Normatov, R. Armstrong, and I.Sh. Normatov. 2016. Variations in Hydrological Parameters of the Zeravshan River and Its Tributaries Depending on Meteorological Conditions. Russian Meteorology and Hydrology 41(9): 657–661. https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373916090090
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