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Cycle 5 (2015 Deadline)
Impact of climate change on runoff from glaciers, snow and rainfall in the Pamir, and Hindu Kush mountains: A comparison of Amu Darya and Kabul River basins
PI: Fahimeh Salehi, Green Social Research Organization
U.S. Partners: Ulrich Kamp, University of Montana, and Daniel Fagre, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
Project Dates: December 2016 - December 2018
Project Overview:
The main objective of this project was to assess the role of glaciers, snow, and rainfall in the total stream flow of the Kabul and Amu Darya river basins. These rivers are transboundary waters, with Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan sharing the Amu Darya, and Afghanistan and Pakistan sharing the Kabul River Basin. Therefore, this project was intended to inform these countries in the face of climate change and economic growth. While the Amu Darya is believed to be heavily glacier-fed, the Kabul River Basin is believed to be heavily snow-fed as a result of climate change. This is an obvious challenge in the winter, as Afghanistan may face flooding, avalanches, flash floods, and the formation of glacier lakes and moraine lakes. In contrast, in summer the country experiences water scarcity. This PEER team focused on these challenges and analyzed the variation of river flows and climate change on sources of water in Afghanistan. Through this project, Afghan and American researchers worked together to share knowledge, experience, and information. Knowing that a primary goal of USAID/Afghanistan is to reduce extreme poverty, the researchers aimed to promote economic growth by optimizing river flow management, helping to predict future climate-related disasters, and presenting alternatives for disaster mitigation and preparedness among the transboundary riparian countries. Information about transboundary water issues remains limited even at the university level, but this project provided an opportunity for researchers, university faculty members, the engineering community, and policy makers to share knowledge and utilize the new technologies.
Final Summary of Project Activities
This project significantly contributed to capacity building for junior researchers, resulting in the production of six articles in local languages supervised by the PI and team members. Training received from US partners and professionals enabled the creation of valuable maps and data, influencing decision-making and prompting institutional reforms and climate change adaptation measures. A total of 100 men and 25 women benefited from the project's training efforts.
The research identified glaciers as prominent indicators of global change in Afghanistan, highlighting their melting due to rising temperatures. This phenomenon has caused both floods and droughts, affecting the Kabul River Basin (KRB) and Amu Darya River Basins. The project developed models tracking climate impacts on these basins, which predominantly rely on water from melting glaciers, snow packs, and icecaps in the Hindu-Kush, Himalayan, and Pamir ranges. Diminished water discharge has negatively impacted local livelihoods, creating future water resource challenges for economic development and environmental sustainability. The GSRO Yearbook web platform was launched in 2018 to disseminate project findings, with an updated version planned for 2019.
Through the project, a national-level conference convened stakeholders and decision-makers, resulting in policy notes derived from project findings and official data. Additionally, the team also presented their research at various conferences and workshops to enhance dissemination and discussion of their findings.
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